Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Takuji Okubo is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Japan Macro Advisors, an independent macro-research boutique he founded in 2012, specializing in the Japanese economy and its public policies. He has over two decades of experience covering Japan macro, beginning his career as an economist at Goldman Sachs Tokyo in 1997 before moving to Merrill Lynch and then Société Générale, where he served as Chief Economist Japan. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and an MSc in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona). In 2022, he co-authored Japan Risk, in Search for a Strategy to Survive with former Bank of Japan Vice-Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.

Japan Economist

Priced for a Japan That Has Not Existed Since 1991, Long the 30-Year JGB at 4.16%

Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Japan's Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve

BoJ Steps Up Its Verbal Yen-Intervention: Expect Faster Rate Hikes

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Most of the historic rise in JGB yields between 2022-26 came from long-run inflation expectation change and a normalization of term premia (TP) as BoJ lifted its unconventional easing.</li>
<li>TP across the yield curve has largely finished its normalization process, in particular at the longest end. TP at 10-year has a moderate room to expand further.</li>
<li>We think the hiking cycle in Japan is already in a late phase. Typically, the longer end of the yield curve starts to decline in a late cycle.</li>
</ul>


Most of the historic rise in JGB yields between 2022-26 came from long-run inflation expectation change and a normalization of term premia (TP) as BoJ lifted its unconventional easing.
TP across the yield curve has largely finished its normalization process, in particular at the longest end. TP at 10-year has a moderate room to expand further.
We think the hiking cycle in Japan is already in a late phase. Typically, the longer end of the yield curve starts to decline in a late cycle.


The Long Climb in JGB Yields Is Nearly Over