Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC's Prices Spur Samsung Interest

Semi Revenues Divergence Continues. AI, HPC Growing at ~45%, Everything Legacy in the Slumps.

USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Operating Margin 50.6%, Guidance 46.5%, Consensus 47.4%.  3Q net income 11% above Consensus. 4Q25 Guidance is ~8% above Consensus.</li>
<li>TSMC increase 2025 revenue growth from ~30% to ~35% in US$, mentioning AI demand outlook. CFO mentions that N2 structural profitability is better than N3 (imo large wafer price increase).</li>
<li>The stock looks expensive at +1 std dev but 1) Consensus looks too low for 2026-27 with 17%, 21% EPS growth YoY. Remember, 2025 Operating Profit increase over 40% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Operating Margin 50.6%, Guidance 46.5%, Consensus 47.4%.  3Q net income 11% above Consensus. 4Q25 Guidance is ~8% above Consensus.
TSMC increase 2025 revenue growth from ~30% to ~35% in US$, mentioning AI demand outlook. CFO mentions that N2 structural profitability is better than N3 (imo large wafer price increase).
The stock looks expensive at +1 std dev but 1) Consensus looks too low for 2026-27 with 17%, 21% EPS growth YoY. Remember, 2025 Operating Profit increase over 40% YoY. 


TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance