Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Not a Normal Regional Bank

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.</li>
<li>This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.</li>
<li>The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.</li>
</ul>


In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.
This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.
The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.


Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

TOPIX-Banks Index

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."