Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Airfares are energy-intensive, so they will trend higher with oil prices, especially now that domestic flights are almost irrelevant and long-haul’s weight is up 15pp since 2020.</li>
<li>Prices are being sampled earlier, postponing much of the impact until the summer holidays and beyond, with larger rises and smaller seasonal falls than otherwise.</li>
<li>Index date quirks will still dominate in a soft April and resurgent December, but we see airfares up 21% by Feb-27, similar to the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.</li>
</ul>


Airfares are energy-intensive, so they will trend higher with oil prices, especially now that domestic flights are almost irrelevant and long-haul’s weight is up 15pp since 2020.
Prices are being sampled earlier, postponing much of the impact until the summer holidays and beyond, with larger rises and smaller seasonal falls than otherwise.
Index date quirks will still dominate in a soft April and resurgent December, but we see airfares up 21% by Feb-27, similar to the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.


UK Airfares Fly Further, Later