Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation stayed at 3% in February, while the core rate rose to 3.23%, leaving only 30bps of progress over the past year. Underlying pressures keep exceeding BoE hopes.</li>
<li>Surging energy prices should broadly return the Ofgem cap to Feb-24 levels, but take the CPI above 3.5% after averaging 2.9% in the gap when costs were temporarily low.</li>
<li>We see inflation peaking around 4% in 2026 and slowing to 3% in 2027. Whatever happens, the BoE’s inflationary bias is set to keep the CPI trending above its target.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation stayed at 3% in February, while the core rate rose to 3.23%, leaving only 30bps of progress over the past year. Underlying pressures keep exceeding BoE hopes.
Surging energy prices should broadly return the Ofgem cap to Feb-24 levels, but take the CPI above 3.5% after averaging 2.9% in the gap when costs were temporarily low.
We see inflation peaking around 4% in 2026 and slowing to 3% in 2027. Whatever happens, the BoE’s inflationary bias is set to keep the CPI trending above its target.


UK: CPI Outlook Embarrasses the BoE