Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK wage growth far exceeded expectations again in Dec-20, mostly due to revisions, with the level well-above its pre-Covid trend. There was a blip in Jan-21 with median wages and vacancies falling, but the latter has rebounded so far in Feb.</em></li>
<li><em>The unemployment rate increased to 5.1% and remains on course to peak at about 7%. We still see productivity bearing the brunt of adjustment. Reports of emigration would also imply a potential GDP hit but are likely to be misreading distortions, in our view.</em></li>
</ul>


UK wage growth far exceeded expectations again in Dec-20, mostly due to revisions, with the level well-above its pre-Covid trend. There was a blip in Jan-21 with median wages and vacancies falling, but the latter has rebounded so far in Feb.
The unemployment rate increased to 5.1% and remains on course to peak at about 7%. We still see productivity bearing the brunt of adjustment. Reports of emigration would also imply a potential GDP hit but are likely to be misreading distortions, in our view.


UK: Labour Market Blips in Lockdown