Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Narrow Retail Rise in Broad Recession

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK employment data beat expectations again in Oct-20 with only a 143k 3m-o-3m decline driving a 19bp rise in the unemployment rate to 4.94% (5.1% forecast). Furlough is likely to prolong adjustments and push more of the pain into productivity again.</em></li>
<li><em>Recessions routinely break productivity trends with permanent costs that are widely ignored. I remain a productivity pessimist, with recent data and policy intensifying this view. The UR peak I expect keeps pushing lower and later, to about 7% in mid-21.</em></li>
</ul>


UK employment data beat expectations again in Oct-20 with only a 143k 3m-o-3m decline driving a 19bp rise in the unemployment rate to 4.94% (5.1% forecast). Furlough is likely to prolong adjustments and push more of the pain into productivity again.
Recessions routinely break productivity trends with permanent costs that are widely ignored. I remain a productivity pessimist, with recent data and policy intensifying this view. The UR peak I expect keeps pushing lower and later, to about 7% in mid-21.


UK: Productivity Pains Intensifying