Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP’s resilience has persisted to a slightly greater-than-usual extent in Q2, but it is slowing. We expect payback and revisions to deliver Q2 at 0.3% q-o-q, half Q1’s pace.</li>
<li>May gained the greatest support from seasonal adjustment factors in a decade, besides the pandemic years, further raising the risk of revisions to slightly less spurious norms.</li>
<li>Slowing in the next two releases should not be sufficient to block a September BoE rate hike amid persistently excessive inflation, but we still see that as a one-and-done move.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP’s resilience has persisted to a slightly greater-than-usual extent in Q2, but it is slowing. We expect payback and revisions to deliver Q2 at 0.3% q-o-q, half Q1’s pace.
May gained the greatest support from seasonal adjustment factors in a decade, besides the pandemic years, further raising the risk of revisions to slightly less spurious norms.
Slowing in the next two releases should not be sufficient to block a September BoE rate hike amid persistently excessive inflation, but we still see that as a one-and-done move.


UK: Spurious GDP Strength Slowing