Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP ended Q1 on a high, with 0.3% m-o-m growth instead of a contraction delivering 0.6% q-o-q. We maintain our call for April-May weakness to slow Q2 to 0.1%.</li>
<li>The monthly profile is following the seasonal path of the past four years, but the 5yr sample in ONS analysis means they won’t find it until 2027, prolonging the problem.</li>
<li>Underlying activity has filled in some of the Q1 hole, and the smaller rebound into Q2 doesn’t fundamentally matter beyond providing doves with an excuse to hike less.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP ended Q1 on a high, with 0.3% m-o-m growth instead of a contraction delivering 0.6% q-o-q. We maintain our call for April-May weakness to slow Q2 to 0.1%.
The monthly profile is following the seasonal path of the past four years, but the 5yr sample in ONS analysis means they won’t find it until 2027, prolonging the problem.
Underlying activity has filled in some of the Q1 hole, and the smaller rebound into Q2 doesn’t fundamentally matter beyond providing doves with an excuse to hike less.


UK: GDP Reaches Seasonal Peak Again