Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Resurgent GDP in February, after an upwardly revised January, doubles tracking estimates of Q1 growth to 0.6% q-o-q. But this is merely a return of residual seasonality.</li>
<li>We still expect growth to be heavily frontloaded into Q1 with stagnation through H2, but the initial real income squeeze is likely to stall Q2 more than usual.</li>
<li>The biased BoE responds asymmetrically. It will likely discount Q1 as spurious rather than hike, yet still see subsequent weakness as a cause for caution, keeping it on hold.</li>
</ul>


Resurgent GDP in February, after an upwardly revised January, doubles tracking estimates of Q1 growth to 0.6% q-o-q. But this is merely a return of residual seasonality.
We still expect growth to be heavily frontloaded into Q1 with stagnation through H2, but the initial real income squeeze is likely to stall Q2 more than usual.
The biased BoE responds asymmetrically. It will likely discount Q1 as spurious rather than hike, yet still see subsequent weakness as a cause for caution, keeping it on hold.


UK Q1 Residual Seasonality Returns