US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere

• Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance
• Front end treasury yields are anchored by Fed's current stance, leading to low range volatility and ongoing support for the treasury market
• Discussion on balance sheet policy suggests QT may end earlier than expected, with reinvestment of MBS proceeds likely to be in T bills, potentially impacting term premium and yield curve dynamics

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