Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US)/ Vanguard (547.TT): The Wafer Prices of Second-Tier Foundries Are Rising.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2026 Outlook Is Very Positive

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 2nd Wave of 8" Wafer Price Increase for 2H26~1Q27

Vanguard (5347.TT): 3Q25 EPS Missed Expectations; 4Q25 and 1Q26 Decline Milder Than Seasonal Trend

Vanguard (5347.TT): Stock Price Rose and Fell Sharply Short-Term; 1Q26 QoQ Expected At -5% to +2%.

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q26 &amp; 2026 Guidance: 1Q26 (FX 31.3); Wafer +1-3% q/q; ASP decline by 3-5% q/q; GM 28%-30%.</li>
<li>In 2026, AI investment wave drives broad semiconductor demand, plus healthy inventory adjustments; mature process capacity squeezed by AI, leading to supply shortages.</li>
<li>Achievable at 30% GM if capacity fully loaded and ASP appropriately reflects cost increases.</li>
</ul>


1Q26 &amp; 2026 Guidance: 1Q26 (FX 31.3); Wafer +1-3% q/q; ASP decline by 3-5% q/q; GM 28%-30%.
In 2026, AI investment wave drives broad semiconductor demand, plus healthy inventory adjustments; mature process capacity squeezed by AI, leading to supply shortages.
Achievable at 30% GM if capacity fully loaded and ASP appropriately reflects cost increases.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q26 Met Expectations, Kicking off a Strong Growth Year.