Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF LN)

The start of US investigations of Vietnam as a currency manipulator highlights Vietnam's success as the key beneficiary of trade diversion from China as the US-China trade war accelerates. Vietnam's trade surplus has scaled new heights this year, and it is one of the few economies globally that has avoided even a single quarter of YoY economic contraction. Although the US will conclude that Vietnam manipulates its currency, strategic considerations will preclude (or at least postpone) any countervailing actions by the US, although Vietnam will be persuaded to allow more US imports. We recommend staying Overweight this frontier market. The Trump administration is initiating an investigation of Vietnam's currency practices under section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. Vietnam's bilateral trade surplus with the US (US$39.5 billion in 2018, US$55.8 billion in 2019, and US$42.4 billion in January-August 2020) is the fourth-largest such surplus among all US trading partners.  A preliminary investigation by the US Treasury and Commerce departments has already concluded that Vietnam is a currency manipulator -- unsurprising, given that Vietnam has had current account surpluses for the past 8 years (5% of GDP in 2019) but its currency is about 10% weaker than 5 years ago, and foreign reserves have risen by a third in the last 12 months to a record high of US$83.4 billion. Although the technical finding will likely conclude that Vietnam is a currency manipulator, the US (especially under a potential Biden administration) will be unlikely to take overt action. Instead, the US will likely work behind the scenes to get Vietnam to import more from the US, including farm products, defense equipment and some manufactures. Vietnam's strategic importance will prevent the US (even under an improbable second Trump term) from imposing sanctions, except as a tough negotiating tactic. However, the publicity around the issue will bring additional attention to the fact that Vietnam is the single biggest beneficiary of trade diversion from China as a result of the expanding US-China trade war. Vietnam has just 85 active cases of Covid-19, and has suffered just 35 deaths. Consequently, it is one among very few economies in Asia (and worldwide) that has not suffered even a quarter of YoY economic contraction (instead seeing real GDP grow 2.2% YoY in Jan-Sep 2020). More economic reform aimed at opening its equity market to foreign inflows, ensuring a higher free float for more of its listed companies, and accelerating the pace of privatization will become an additional focus in the year ahead. As these steps are adopted, the prospect will rise of Vietnam being included as an emerging market in MSCI indices no later than 2022. We recommend staying Overweight Vietnam in its final year or two as a frontier market.

The start of US investigations of Vietnam as a currency manipulator highlights Vietnam's success as the key beneficiary of trade diversion from China as the US-China trade war accelerates. Vietnam's trade surplus has scaled new heights this year, and it is one of the few economies globally that has avoided even a single quarter of YoY economic contraction. Although the US will conclude that Vietnam manipulates its currency, strategic considerations will preclude (or at least postpone) any countervailing actions by the US, although Vietnam will be persuaded to allow more US imports. We recommend staying Overweight this frontier market. The Trump administration is initiating an investigation of Vietnam's currency practices under section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. Vietnam's bilateral trade surplus with the US (US$39.5 billion in 2018, US$55.8 billion in 2019, and US$42.4 billion in January-August 2020) is the fourth-largest such surplus among all US trading partners.  A preliminary investigation by the US Treasury and Commerce departments has already concluded that Vietnam is a currency manipulator -- unsurprising, given that Vietnam has had current account surpluses for the past 8 years (5% of GDP in 2019) but its currency is about 10% weaker than 5 years ago, and foreign reserves have risen by a third in the last 12 months to a record high of US$83.4 billion. Although the technical finding will likely conclude that Vietnam is a currency manipulator, the US (especially under a potential Biden administration) will be unlikely to take overt action. Instead, the US will likely work behind the scenes to get Vietnam to import more from the US, including farm products, defense equipment and some manufactures. Vietnam's strategic importance will prevent the US (even under an improbable second Trump term) from imposing sanctions, except as a tough negotiating tactic. However, the publicity around the issue will bring additional attention to the fact that Vietnam is the single biggest beneficiary of trade diversion from China as a result of the expanding US-China trade war. Vietnam has just 85 active cases of Covid-19, and has suffered just 35 deaths. Consequently, it is one among very few economies in Asia (and worldwide) that has not suffered even a quarter of YoY economic contraction (instead seeing real GDP grow 2.2% YoY in Jan-Sep 2020). More economic reform aimed at opening its equity market to foreign inflows, ensuring a higher free float for more of its listed companies, and accelerating the pace of privatization will become an additional focus in the year ahead. As these steps are adopted, the prospect will rise of Vietnam being included as an emerging market in MSCI indices no later than 2022. We recommend staying Overweight Vietnam in its final year or two as a frontier market. 

Vietnam Government International Bond (VIETNM GOVT)

Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action