Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Unambiguously Hawkish Powell to Trigger Higher Yields and a Stronger Dollar

With the Inflation Target Breached, Can the Fed Postpone Signalling Faster Rate Hikes?

Cavium/Marvell CFIUS Review to Focus on China

Trumponomics & The Trillion $$ Tsunami of Deficits

Republican Tax Cuts Will Cause Deficits to Balloon, and Bonds to Sell off Dramatically in 2018

Friday's Budget Agreement Makes A Poor U.S. Fiscal Outlook Even Worse

US Yield Curve to Steepen with a Clean Break

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

With the US now set to have fiscal deficits in excess of 5% of GDP annually over the next 12 years, at a time when the public debt/GDP ratio is already above 105%, we expect the US 10-year bond yield to rise toward 3.5% over the next half year. The tightening labour market (as reflected in the unemployment rate of 4% and limited slack in the participation rate) is likely to cause wages to accelerate, pushing core inflation toward 2% in 2H 2018. The monetary base actually rose in January 2018…

With the US now set to have fiscal deficits in excess of 5% of GDP annually over the next 12 years, at a time when the public debt/GDP ratio is already above 105%, we expect the US 10-year bond yield to rise toward 3.5% over the next half year. The tightening labour market (as reflected in the unemployment rate of 4% and limited slack in the participation rate) is likely to cause wages to accelerate, pushing core inflation toward 2% in 2H 2018. The monetary base actually rose in January 2018…

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Volatility's Return and the Rising Risk of Policy Error