Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.</li>
<li>Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.</li>
<li>Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.</li>
</ul>


Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.


Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking