Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Gerdau 4Q25: North America Drives Earnings, Brazil Margins Remain Pressured

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Key Outcome: North America carried 1Q26 earnings, supporting 23.2% YoY adjusted EBITDA growth and reinforcing Gerdau’s status as a resilient BBB LatAm industrial credit.</li>
<li>
Risk/Volatility: Brazil remains the main earnings drag, with import pressure, cost headwinds, and only gradual margin recovery limiting the near term upside case.</li>
<li>
Valuation Driver: Neutral is maintained as Gerdau’s credit quality is largely priced in, with 2035s preferred for holding but not adding below 120 bps OAS.</li>
</ul>



Key Outcome: North America carried 1Q26 earnings, supporting 23.2% YoY adjusted EBITDA growth and reinforcing Gerdau’s status as a resilient BBB LatAm industrial credit.

Risk/Volatility: Brazil remains the main earnings drag, with import pressure, cost headwinds, and only gradual margin recovery limiting the near term upside case.

Valuation Driver: Neutral is maintained as Gerdau’s credit quality is largely priced in, with 2035s preferred for holding but not adding below 120 bps OAS.


Gerdau 2026年第1四半期決算：北米事業が収益を牽引するも、バリュエーションが上昇余地を制限

Gerdau S.A.

Gerdau 2026年第1四半期決算：北米事業が収益を牽引するも、バリュエーションが上昇余地を制限