Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2024-high-conviction-junior-copper-miners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:122425" rel="noopener">2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners</a> garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN) </a>has performed strongest +22% while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY)</a> has been a laggard at -18% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +22% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -18% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Equity Bottom-Up

Entree Resources Ltd. operates as a mining company. The Company develops and discovers gold and copper resources. Entree Resources is currently conducting exploration on its mineral concessions in Mongolia.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.</li>
<li>Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.
Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?


Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.</li>
<li>Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM's stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.</li>
<li>A potential new Trump presidency would push an "America First" agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.
Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM's stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.
A potential new Trump presidency would push an "America First" agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.


AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

Tod's S.p.A. manufactures and retails men's, women's, and sports shoes.  The Company's signature shoe is a loafer with rubber spikes on the sole and heel. Brand names include Tod's, Hogan, and Fay.  The Company operates owned and franchised stores in Europe, the United States, Asia, and the Middle East.

<ul>
<li>As we have long predicted LVMH is making a cheap and sneaky offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tod-s-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21231:1" rel="noopener">Tod's SpA (TOD IM).</a>
</li>
<li>LVMH is doing it via wholly controlled L Catterton to confuse minority holders</li>
<li>L Catterton = LVMH,  and the only reason for the current proposal is to be able to pay Della Valle a much higher price in a private transaction later on.</li>
</ul>


As we have long predicted LVMH is making a cheap and sneaky offer for Tod's SpA (TOD IM).

LVMH is doing it via wholly controlled L Catterton to confuse minority holders
L Catterton = LVMH,  and the only reason for the current proposal is to be able to pay Della Valle a much higher price in a private transaction later on.


Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

<ul>
<li>AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.</li>
<li>Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? </li>
<li>4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.</li>
</ul>


AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

Was on the buyside for 15 years, most recently at a medium-sized boutique asset management firm. I grew up in Europe, went to university in the US and have been living in Singapore for the last 7 years which has given me a broad scope on the world and investing in general.

Consider myself a generalist investor with a preference for small and mid-cap companies and special situations. However, a large cap that has gone temporarily out of favor might also pique my interest. 

My style of investing could be categorized as more of value investor, rather than growth at any cost. Learning from Charlie Munger on the importance of quality of a company has been of tremendous value over the years.I like businesses with real earnings, cash flows, dividends, book value and insider ownership.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven
Insight Provider
• CrossASEAN Research

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

AEM has had a horrific start to FY24. Inventory issues, CFO and COO departures, and a weak business outlook. FY24 guidance was weak and visibility...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

Tod's has received another privatization offer at 43 EUR per share. This is the second privatization attempt in two years. The offer is highly...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

​Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

AEM has had a horrific start to FY24. Inventory issues, CFO and COO departures, and a weak business outlook. FY24 guidance was weak and visibility...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

Tod's has received another privatization offer at 43 EUR per share. This is the second privatization attempt in two years. The offer is highly...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.