Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Is Gold poised for a breakout, confirmed by Silver's lead? Gold prices are currently forming a triangle continuation pattern akin to the one in Q4 2024.</li>
<li>Critically, silver serves as a lead indicator in this context; it has already completed its own triangle pattern and broken out to new highs.</li>
<li>The path ahead for gold prices is contingent on the timing of US rate cuts, real-yield trends, and geopolitical risks.</li>
</ul>


Is Gold poised for a breakout, confirmed by Silver's lead? Gold prices are currently forming a triangle continuation pattern akin to the one in Q4 2024.
Critically, silver serves as a lead indicator in this context; it has already completed its own triangle pattern and broken out to new highs.
The path ahead for gold prices is contingent on the timing of US rate cuts, real-yield trends, and geopolitical risks.


Is Silver Leading the Charge? Do New Highs in Silver Signal Green Light for New Gold Highs?

<ul>
<li>Central Banks added 15t of gold to their reserves, resuming buying after a hiatus in July. Seven banks added and two banks sold.</li>
<li>China clocked tenth sequential monthly increase in adding gold to its reserves. Despite that, gold represents only 7% of China’s total international reserves.</li>
<li>Poland, the largest central bank gold buyer YTD 2025 announced that it raised its gold target from 20% to 30%.</li>
</ul>


Central Banks added 15t of gold to their reserves, resuming buying after a hiatus in July. Seven banks added and two banks sold.
China clocked tenth sequential monthly increase in adding gold to its reserves. Despite that, gold represents only 7% of China’s total international reserves.
Poland, the largest central bank gold buyer YTD 2025 announced that it raised its gold target from 20% to 30%.


Central Banks Resume Gold Buying In August 2025

<ul>
<li>Newmont completed a USD 2 billion debt tender, reflecting its ongoing debt-reduction strategy. Total debt fell from USD 6.4 billion in 2023 to USD 1.4 billion currently.</li>
<li>As the world’s largest gold miner and the only one in the S&amp;P 500, Newmont’s scale, portfolio reforms, cost discipline, and strong margins reinforce its industry leadership.</li>
<li>Strong metal prices, elevated gold, and a bullish options market, combined with a Sharpe ratio of 3.68, position Newmont to outperform peers and deliver efficient risk-adjusted returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


Newmont completed a USD 2 billion debt tender, reflecting its ongoing debt-reduction strategy. Total debt fell from USD 6.4 billion in 2023 to USD 1.4 billion currently.
As the world’s largest gold miner and the only one in the S&amp;P 500, Newmont’s scale, portfolio reforms, cost discipline, and strong margins reinforce its industry leadership.
Strong metal prices, elevated gold, and a bullish options market, combined with a Sharpe ratio of 3.68, position Newmont to outperform peers and deliver efficient risk-adjusted returns to investors.


From Debt to Dominance: How Newmont Is Redefining Gold Mining

<ul>
<li>The potential dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has created uncertainty in the markets. In the short term, this situation is favorable for gold for multiple reasons.</li>
<li>A declining U.S. dollar and increasing inflation expectations, fueled by worries regarding the independence of central banks, are expected to elevate gold prices.</li>
<li>In spite of increasing prices and a rise in call options, the implied volatility for gold has continued to decrease, notwithstanding a mild uptick observed recently.</li>
</ul>


The potential dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has created uncertainty in the markets. In the short term, this situation is favorable for gold for multiple reasons.
A declining U.S. dollar and increasing inflation expectations, fueled by worries regarding the independence of central banks, are expected to elevate gold prices.
In spite of increasing prices and a rise in call options, the implied volatility for gold has continued to decrease, notwithstanding a mild uptick observed recently.


If Fed Chair Is Dismissed, Then How Will Gold React?

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures dropped as China’s steel demand weakened and Beijing considered a pre-sale ban of unfinished homes, potentially hurting global steel demand. </li>
<li>Expectations of impending production restrictions were bolstered when Baosteel forecasted that China's total steel output could decrease by 50 million tons this year. </li>
<li>On the technical front, prices remain below key moving averages, and MACD lags the signal line, reinforcing a persistent bearish outlook. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures dropped as China’s steel demand weakened and Beijing considered a pre-sale ban of unfinished homes, potentially hurting global steel demand. 
Expectations of impending production restrictions were bolstered when Baosteel forecasted that China's total steel output could decrease by 50 million tons this year. 
On the technical front, prices remain below key moving averages, and MACD lags the signal line, reinforcing a persistent bearish outlook. 


[IO Technicals 2025/22] Bearish Momentum Strengthens