Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Part of investing is proper risk management and the pricing of risk.</li>
<li>While war in the Middle East is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran are higher than the market expects.</li>
<li>The market is underpricing the risk of war and investors should be aware of this tail risk and position themselves accordingly.</li>
</ul>


Part of investing is proper risk management and the pricing of risk.
While war in the Middle East is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran are higher than the market expects.
The market is underpricing the risk of war and investors should be aware of this tail risk and position themselves accordingly.


Thinking the Unthinkable: Israel-Iran War

<ul>
<li>The combination of easier monetary policy by most global central banks and strong price momentum is equity bullish. </li>
<li>However, investors should be aware of the risks to the growth outlook.</li>
<li>Global institutions are underweight risk and they may be forced to play catch-up. But fast money risk appetite is elevated, which makes stock prices vulnerable to short-term setbacks.</li>
</ul>


The combination of easier monetary policy by most global central banks and strong price momentum is equity bullish. 
However, investors should be aware of the risks to the growth outlook.
Global institutions are underweight risk and they may be forced to play catch-up. But fast money risk appetite is elevated, which makes stock prices vulnerable to short-term setbacks.


<ul>
<li>Markets have taken on a risk-on tone on the news of global central bank stimulus. Gold has rallied the most as real rates fell, equities rose and bond prices fell.</li>
<li>But the market's risk-on psychology appears to be stretched and fragile.</li>
<li>While the long-term bullish trend is quite real, the consensus is susceptible to reversals should growth disappoint in the near-term.</li>
</ul>


Markets have taken on a risk-on tone on the news of global central bank stimulus. Gold has rallied the most as real rates fell, equities rose and bond prices fell.
But the market's risk-on psychology appears to be stretched and fragile.
While the long-term bullish trend is quite real, the consensus is susceptible to reversals should growth disappoint in the near-term.


The Winners and Losers From Central Bank Stimulus

<ul>
<li>Bonds expect a second half-point cut at the next FOMC meeting, which is rare outside of recessions, while stocks are cheering the prospects of a soft landing.</li>
<li>As the Fed’s focus shifts from its price stability mandate to its full employment mandate, investor expectations will depend on the strength of the jobs market.</li>
<li>As leading indicators of employment weaken, the upcoming September Jobs Report could prove to be pivotal to market psychology.</li>
</ul>


Bonds expect a second half-point cut at the next FOMC meeting, which is rare outside of recessions, while stocks are cheering the prospects of a soft landing.
As the Fed’s focus shifts from its price stability mandate to its full employment mandate, investor expectations will depend on the strength of the jobs market.
As leading indicators of employment weaken, the upcoming September Jobs Report could prove to be pivotal to market psychology.


<ul>
<li>The stock market is exhibiting strong positive price momentum, but in the face of a seasonally weak period for stocks.</li>
<li>In Finance Land, seasonality determines the climate, and the combination of fundamental, technical and macro factors determine the day-to-day weather.</li>
<li>In the very short term, the weather is bullish, but stock prices are ultimately determined by the growth and interest rate outlook.</li>
</ul>


The stock market is exhibiting strong positive price momentum, but in the face of a seasonally weak period for stocks.
In Finance Land, seasonality determines the climate, and the combination of fundamental, technical and macro factors determine the day-to-day weather.
In the very short term, the weather is bullish, but stock prices are ultimately determined by the growth and interest rate outlook.


Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cam Hui
Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst
• Pennock Idea Hub

Thinking the Unthinkable: Israel-Iran War

Part of investing is proper risk management and the pricing of risk. While war is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of an Israeli...

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A Powerful Buy Signal, With Caveats

The combination of easier monetary policy by most global central banks and strong price momentum is equity bullish. However, investors should be...

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The Winners and Losers From Central Bank Stimulus

The market's risk-on tone is stretched and fragile. While the long-term bullish trend is quite real, the consensus is susceptible to reversals...

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Is the Fed Ahead or Behind the Curve

As the Fed’s focus shifts from its price stability mandate to its full employment mandate, the upcoming September Jobs Report could prove to be...

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S&P 500 Breakout or Fake-Out?

Technical analysts face a difficult choice. The stock market is exhibiting strong positive price momentum, but in the face of a seasonally weak...

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