Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

<ul>
<li>In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies</li>
<li>STO and J&amp;T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most</li>
<li>STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy</li>
</ul>


In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies
STO and J&amp;T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most
STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

<ul>
<li>Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?</li>
<li>In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs</li>
</ul>


Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs


ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Equity Capital Markets

Zoetop Business Co., Limited, doing business as SHEIN, operates as a fashion e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on women's wear, men's apparel, children's clothes, accessories, shoes, bags, and other fashion items. SHEIN serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>SHEIN's general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions</li>
<li>It's the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO</li>
<li>Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain &amp; new threat from <em>Amazon</em> to existing risks</li>
</ul>


SHEIN's general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
It's the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain &amp; new threat from Amazon to existing risks


Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN's Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was <em>negative</em> 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

<ul>
<li>Tracking Asian air cargo trends can uncover investment opportunities &amp; offer read-throughs</li>
<li>In November 2024, no clear signs of market tightness in data from Taiwanese, Chinese carriers</li>
<li>A quick look at numbers from CX, SIA, LAX also suggests ample available cargo space</li>
</ul>


Tracking Asian air cargo trends can uncover investment opportunities &amp; offer read-throughs
In November 2024, no clear signs of market tightness in data from Taiwanese, Chinese carriers
A quick look at numbers from CX, SIA, LAX also suggests ample available cargo space


Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Daniel Hellberg
Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport
• Tracking Traffic

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN's Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

Sharp questions about SHEIN's supply chains and a competing product from US ecomm giant Amazon should be added to the growing list of challenges...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Our review of Asian air cargo data aims to uncover investment ideas and potentially provide "read-throughs" to adjacent segments. In the November...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)

Although Chinese domestic express pricing has moderated in recent months, the main players in this sector continue to battle one another for...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN's Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

Sharp questions about SHEIN's supply chains and a competing product from US ecomm giant Amazon should be added to the growing list of challenges...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Our review of Asian air cargo data aims to uncover investment ideas and potentially provide "read-throughs" to adjacent segments. In the November...

Tracking Traffic