Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening.  Rising bond yields and massive retail losses from leveraged ETFs are adding to selling pressure.</li>
<li>The dominant technical picture is bearish, with the index in a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes.  Momentum and trend indicators, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels are breaking down simultaneously.</li>
<li>The weight of evidence strongly supports the view that, for institutional allocators with risk management constraints, Korea is materially less investable today than at any point in the past decade.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening.  Rising bond yields and massive retail losses from leveraged ETFs are adding to selling pressure.
The dominant technical picture is bearish, with the index in a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes.  Momentum and trend indicators, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels are breaking down simultaneously.
The weight of evidence strongly supports the view that, for institutional allocators with risk management constraints, Korea is materially less investable today than at any point in the past decade.


KOSPI CRASHING AGAIN: S.O.S. - Save Our Seouls !!

<ul>
<li>Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".</li>
<li>The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.</li>
<li>Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".
The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.
Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.


ANTHROPIC & OPENAI - ARR: Every Bubble Has a Gimmick

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes communication devices. The Company produces mobile phones and phone accessories. Shenzhen Transsion Holdings markets products in China, Africa, and other countries and regions.

<ul>
<li>Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH) launched its Hong Kong H-share IPO today (Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (2636 HK)) to raise up to HK$3.36 billion.  Trading is to begin on October 15. </li>
<li>Shenzhen Transsion is the world's largest feature-phone maker, with a ~45% global market share in 2025, and ranks as the sixth-largest smartphone vendor with ~8%.</li>
<li>Transsion is aggressively hiking smartphone prices and shifting product mix toward higher-end models (&gt;$200).  Smartphone ASP rose over 30% YoY in Q1 2026, with further hikes planned through year-end 2026.</li>
</ul>


Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH) launched its Hong Kong H-share IPO today (Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (2636 HK)) to raise up to HK$3.36 billion.  Trading is to begin on October 15. 
Shenzhen Transsion is the world's largest feature-phone maker, with a ~45% global market share in 2025, and ranks as the sixth-largest smartphone vendor with ~8%.
Transsion is aggressively hiking smartphone prices and shifting product mix toward higher-end models (&gt;$200).  Smartphone ASP rose over 30% YoY in Q1 2026, with further hikes planned through year-end 2026.


HK IPO WATCH: Shenzhen Transsion Holding - A Close Call !!

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology Co., Ltd. is a RISC-V oriented chip product provider in China, specializing in the research and design of chips, chipsets, and circuit boards, along with essential software. The company was China's largest domestic smart device human-machine interaction chip product provider by revenue in 2025 and is currently seeking a primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (ESWIN HK)

<ul>
<li>Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per share, raising up to $HK2.5 billion.</li>
<li>ESWIN is one of China's leading RISC-V chipmakers, placing it at the intersection of China's drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency and the global shift away from proprietary ISA architectures.</li>
<li>The company's RISC-V focus differentiates it from ARM-based peers and aligns with Beijing's push for open-architecture semiconductor independence.</li>
</ul>


Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per share, raising up to $HK2.5 billion.
ESWIN is one of China's leading RISC-V chipmakers, placing it at the intersection of China's drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency and the global shift away from proprietary ISA architectures.
The company's RISC-V focus differentiates it from ARM-based peers and aligns with Beijing's push for open-architecture semiconductor independence.


HK IPO WATCH: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology -  RISC-V Business !!

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.