Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The massive rally in the price of gold coincided with Fed Governor Waller’s speech, in which he stated that he believes the Federal Reserve should buy more T-bills.</li>
<li>Many market pundits argue that changing narratives explain historical gold rallies.</li>
<li>But digging a bit deeper reveals that, especially since the Great Financial Crisis, the narrative behind gold's strong performance has been the same and getting stronger.</li>
</ul>


The massive rally in the price of gold coincided with Fed Governor Waller’s speech, in which he stated that he believes the Federal Reserve should buy more T-bills.
Many market pundits argue that changing narratives explain historical gold rallies.
But digging a bit deeper reveals that, especially since the Great Financial Crisis, the narrative behind gold's strong performance has been the same and getting stronger.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After three disappointing CPI reports, ‘Jay’ has only a tiny platform left to perform his dovish act.</li>
<li>The ongoing decline of US Small Business Sentiment confirms the odds of a US recession are not zero.</li>
<li>Gold is smashing record after record, and economy pundits keep telling you this is all about momentum.</li>
</ul>


After three disappointing CPI reports, ‘Jay’ has only a tiny platform left to perform his dovish act.
The ongoing decline of US Small Business Sentiment confirms the odds of a US recession are not zero.
Gold is smashing record after record, and economy pundits keep telling you this is all about momentum.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Fed Doves Have Nowhere to Fly, Gold's Fairytale Continues

<ul>
<li>US Services ex Shelter inflation spiked to over 8% in March!</li>
<li>Powell must work magic to stick to three rate cuts for this year.</li>
<li>Yet the odds remain high that we will see three or more rate cuts, but that doesn't help you much now.</li>
</ul>


US Services ex Shelter inflation spiked to over 8% in March!
Powell must work magic to stick to three rate cuts for this year.
Yet the odds remain high that we will see three or more rate cuts, but that doesn't help you much now.


<ul>
<li>Three out of my four global earnings indicators point to significant earnings growth.</li>
<li>Chinese producer prices are the outlier, but it's no surprise that domestic factors are at play here.</li>
<li>Equally important, investor expectations do not deviate all that much from the growth in earnings-per-share forecasted by the aggregate global earnings bellwether.</li>
</ul>


Three out of my four global earnings indicators point to significant earnings growth.
Chinese producer prices are the outlier, but it's no surprise that domestic factors are at play here.
Equally important, investor expectations do not deviate all that much from the growth in earnings-per-share forecasted by the aggregate global earnings bellwether.


Company Earnings: They Will Go Up, and Expectations Are Far from Excessive

<ul>
<li>This week, the price of gold surged past USD 2,300 per Troy Ounce for the first time, and it was not because Western investors were rushing in.</li>
<li>Equity markets refuse to decline due to excessive fiscal stimulus, central bank eagerness to cut rates, and improving economic momentum.</li>
<li>Despite falling bond volatility, the MOVE index remains elevated relative to the VIX index, a sign of changing times.</li>
</ul>


This week, the price of gold surged past USD 2,300 per Troy Ounce for the first time, and it was not because Western investors were rushing in.
Equity markets refuse to decline due to excessive fiscal stimulus, central bank eagerness to cut rates, and improving economic momentum.
Despite falling bond volatility, the MOVE index remains elevated relative to the VIX index, a sign of changing times.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Bugs, Debt Bubbles, and Volatility Bites

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Jeroen Blokland
Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist
• True Insights

The Rally in Gold: Clear as Day

The rally in gold is driven to a large extent by the same, not changing, narrative, and that narrative is getting stronger!

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Fed Doves Have Nowhere to Fly, Gold's Fairytale Continues

Will Powell cave to inflation and destroy the equity market rally? And what is stopping gold? Do US small businesses signal a recession?

Jeroen Blokland

Running Out of Runway

The odds that Powell can pull off another dovish act at the next FOMC press conference have dropped significantly following the March inflation...

Jeroen Blokland

Company Earnings: They Will Go Up, and Expectations Are Far from Excessive

The odds of an earnings recession have come down massively. But better, investor expectations are not too upbeat at all!

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Bugs, Debt Bubbles, and Volatility Bites

Gold makes fresh highs as debt continues to balloon. Will (bond and equity market) volatility come back with a vengeance?

Jeroen Blokland