Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Americans have much less appetite for spending money during the coming ‘holiday season’ than in July.</li>
<li>A parallel is building between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018, when retail sales tumbled by what was then the biggest decline on record.  </li>
<li>Spiking interest rates, falling consumer sentiment, a somewhat less resilient labor market, and depleted excess savings may accumulate in another sudden spending stop.</li>
</ul>


Americans have much less appetite for spending money during the coming ‘holiday season’ than in July.
A parallel is building between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018, when retail sales tumbled by what was then the biggest decline on record.  
Spiking interest rates, falling consumer sentiment, a somewhat less resilient labor market, and depleted excess savings may accumulate in another sudden spending stop.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>First and foremost, we are not positive about US homebuilders due to the sharp decline in housing market activity caused by the significantly increased mortgage rates.</li>
<li>The correlation between the future performance of the S&amp;P 500 Homebuilding Index relative to the broad S&amp;P 500 Index and the level of the NAHB Market Index is ZERO.</li>
<li>In addition, there is no correlation between the performance of US homebuilders and CHANGES in the NAHB Market Index.</li>
</ul>


First and foremost, we are not positive about US homebuilders due to the sharp decline in housing market activity caused by the significantly increased mortgage rates.
The correlation between the future performance of the S&amp;P 500 Homebuilding Index relative to the broad S&amp;P 500 Index and the level of the NAHB Market Index is ZERO.
In addition, there is no correlation between the performance of US homebuilders and CHANGES in the NAHB Market Index.


Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

<ul>
<li>As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.</li>
<li>While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.</li>
<li>The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.</li>
</ul>


As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.
While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.
The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.


<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.</li>
<li>We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. </li>
<li>With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.
We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. 
With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Jeroen Blokland
Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist
• True Insights

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

Party like It's 2018?

An eerie resemblance of the December 2018 shocking decline in US retail sales is starting to emerge as excess savings get depleted, and yields...

Jeroen Blokland

Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

During housing market crises, it's 'fun' to watch US homebuilder sentiment, but be aware it cannot be used to forecast homebuilder returns.

Jeroen Blokland

USDJPY - An Opportunistic Currency Trade

New Currency Trade Idea. We are initiating an opportunistic long position in the Japanese Yen against the US dollar as the USDJPY exchange rate...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

One-and-a-half hawkish central bank pauses spooked equity investors, who are running out of narratives to keep stocks from falling.

Jeroen Blokland