Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Derivatives

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.</li>
<li>Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.</li>
<li>The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.
Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.
The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.


Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> that will be implemented starting from December 30.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is falling this week, so <strong>we analyze our model's WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose. </strong>
</li>
</ul>



Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is falling this week, so we analyze our model's WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much HDFC Bank can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose. 



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> started correcting at the end of October 2025. At the same time, in early November, SoftBank Group announced it was unloading all its NVDA stake. </li>
<li>SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, speaking at an investment forum in Tokyo Monday,  revealed he was reluctant to sell SoftBank's Nvidia stake, but needed to raise cash for new AI investments.</li>
<li>Both companies are very oversold according to our models, NVDA has reached a point where is a good BUY, we present here a new analytics tool, to support this theory.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) started correcting at the end of October 2025. At the same time, in early November, SoftBank Group announced it was unloading all its NVDA stake. 
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, speaking at an investment forum in Tokyo Monday,  revealed he was reluctant to sell SoftBank's Nvidia stake, but needed to raise cash for new AI investments.
Both companies are very oversold according to our models, NVDA has reached a point where is a good BUY, we present here a new analytics tool, to support this theory.


Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Equity Derivatives

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>On November 28th China Securities Index Co (CSI) announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>: <strong>11 companies added and 11 deleted</strong>.</li>
<li>The complete list of additions and deletions is available <a href="https://www.csindex.com.cn/index.html#/about/newsDetail?id=3006001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (or see the attachment at the end of this insight for your convenience).</li>
<li>We analyze our probabilistic models to forecast short-term market directions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, as passive flows between here and December 12 may affect the index volatility and trend.</li>
</ul>


On November 28th China Securities Index Co (CSI) announced the changes to the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX): 11 companies added and 11 deleted.
The complete list of additions and deletions is available here (or see the attachment at the end of this insight for your convenience).
We analyze our probabilistic models to forecast short-term market directions for the CSI 300 Index, as passive flows between here and December 12 may affect the index volatility and trend.


CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook After Nov. 28 Rebalance Announcement

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> delivered stellar returns this year, but after peaking in early November and pulling back all month, we see downside risk persisting.</li>
<li>We hypothesize the current rally may be a bear rally. If correct, our models indicate TSMC has nearly depleted this rebound and downside risk looms.</li>
<li>If we are wrong, TSMC could continue this rally to 1483-1581, the details as always are discussed in the insight.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) delivered stellar returns this year, but after peaking in early November and pulling back all month, we see downside risk persisting.
We hypothesize the current rally may be a bear rally. If correct, our models indicate TSMC has nearly depleted this rebound and downside risk looms.
If we are wrong, TSMC could continue this rally to 1483-1581, the details as always are discussed in the insight.


TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After November's Pullback: Further Downside Risk Remains

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

My proprietary models can be accessed directly at www.qantrading.com