Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> revealed in early November the sale of all its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.</li>
<li>The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.</li>
<li>The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) revealed in early November the sale of all its NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.
The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.
The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-50-tactical-outlook-a-buy-opportunity" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last NIFTY insight in mid December</a> we identified a BUY opportunity at around 25860, with a target around 26291-26966. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> bottomed at 25726 and rallied to 26366.</li>
<li>Last week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> pulled back to a support price (25683) that our PRICE MODEL identified as very oversold (80% probability of LONG reversal).</li>
<li>The TIME MODEL is also oversold (70% probability of reversal), so we recently indicated in our  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pan-asian-stocks-tactical-outlook-week-jan-12-jan-16" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pan-Asian Stocks WEEKLY Tactical Outlook</a> that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> was a candidate for reversal.</li>
</ul>


In our last NIFTY insight in mid December we identified a BUY opportunity at around 25860, with a target around 26291-26966. The NIFTY bottomed at 25726 and rallied to 26366.
Last week the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) pulled back to a support price (25683) that our PRICE MODEL identified as very oversold (80% probability of LONG reversal).
The TIME MODEL is also oversold (70% probability of reversal), so we recently indicated in our  Pan-Asian Stocks WEEKLY Tactical Outlook that the NIFTY was a candidate for reversal.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Did Recent Volatility Create A Buying Opportunity?

<ul>
<li>Tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover, the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.</li>
<li>The picture is full of contrasts this week, some Pan-Asian stocks are overbought and some are oversold. Read the insight for the details and our comments/analysis.</li>
<li>One additional thing worth mentioning: our Crude Oil model says that CL futures are WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after a non-impressive rally (=weakness).</li>
</ul>


Tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover, the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.
The picture is full of contrasts this week, some Pan-Asian stocks are overbought and some are oversold. Read the insight for the details and our comments/analysis.
One additional thing worth mentioning: our Crude Oil model says that CL futures are WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after a non-impressive rally (=weakness).


Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 12 – Jan 16)

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> close the week down, very mild, minimal, 1-week pullback, could be interpreted as a buy-the-dip setup according to our model.</li>
<li>The index could pullback 1 more week (even 2 weeks), but it would become very oversold, according to our quant HSI probabilistic bayesian model.</li>
<li>A rally could go to 27417 in 2 weeks times. A more ambitious target would be 28017, in 3-4 weeks time. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) close the week down, very mild, minimal, 1-week pullback, could be interpreted as a buy-the-dip setup according to our model.
The index could pullback 1 more week (even 2 weeks), but it would become very oversold, according to our quant HSI probabilistic bayesian model.
A rally could go to 27417 in 2 weeks times. A more ambitious target would be 28017, in 3-4 weeks time. 


HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook: Rally Continuation or Pause?

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).</li>
<li>Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.</li>
<li>
Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).
Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.

Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.


Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC (Austin, TX - USA). 

I specialize in systematic, short-term forecasting for US and Pan-Asian Stocks and Indexes. My methodology is centered on proprietary quantitative modeling (statistical study of trend persistence and mean reversion effects), leveraging probabilistic Bayesian models to predict tactical shifts over a 1-day to few-week horizon.

All models are explicitly human-built—no AI/machine learning—to eliminate black-box risk. This intensive, non-automated approach ensures that every Tactical Market Call is supported by a clear, explainable rationale.

Nico Rosti
Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)
• MRM Research

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Did Recent Volatility Create A Buying Opportunity?

Our quantitative model-based analysis indicates that last week's volatility in the NIFTY Index has created a high-probability short-term LONG...

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 12 – Jan 16)

Our WEEKLY quantitative analysis of Pan-Asian indices and stocks' probable trend direction for the next few weeks. We currently see a contrasted...

Nico Rosti

HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook: Rally Continuation or Pause?

The Hang Seng Index closed the week with a mild pullback, our model sees a potentially very good buy-the-dip setup according. Further pullback to...

Nico Rosti

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

​Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Did Recent Volatility Create A Buying Opportunity?

​Our quantitative model-based analysis indicates that last week's volatility in the NIFTY Index has created a high-probability short-term LONG...

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 12 – Jan 16)

​Our WEEKLY quantitative analysis of Pan-Asian indices and stocks' probable trend direction for the next few weeks. We currently see a contrasted...

Nico Rosti

HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook: Rally Continuation or Pause?

​The Hang Seng Index closed the week with a mild pullback, our model sees a potentially very good buy-the-dip setup according. Further pullback to...

Nico Rosti

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

​Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Our quantitative model-based analysis indicates that last week's volatility in the NIFTY Index has created a high-probability short-term LONG...

Our WEEKLY quantitative analysis of Pan-Asian indices and stocks' probable trend direction for the next few weeks. We currently see a contrasted...

The Hang Seng Index closed the week with a mild pullback, our model sees a potentially very good buy-the-dip setup according. Further pullback to...

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...