Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Bajaj Finance Limited is a financial services company that operates branches in India, which provide an assortment of financial services.

<ul>
<li>As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector or industry.</li>
<li>Companies highlighted include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-finance-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9661:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aavas-financiers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27422:1" rel="noopener">Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)</a> .</li>
<li>BAF's negative commentary around rural B2C business is surprising and an area that warrants further investigation.</li>
</ul>


As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector or industry.
Companies highlighted include Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN); Shriram Finance (SHFL IN); L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN) ; Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN) &amp; Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) .
BAF's negative commentary around rural B2C business is surprising and an area that warrants further investigation.


Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

<ul>
<li>Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> is trying hard to gain market share.</li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnb-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23613:1" rel="noopener">PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/varun-beverages-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23653:1" rel="noopener">Varun Beverages (VBL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> show up as interesting ARs to read. </li>
</ul>


Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) is trying hard to gain market share.
Other names discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 

Varun Beverages (VBL IN) and Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) show up as interesting ARs to read. 


[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

Aavas Financiers Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers home, land purchase, construction, home improvement, balance transfer, and business loans. Aavas Financiers serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Strong operational updates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aavas-financiers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27422:1" rel="noopener">Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards (SULA IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.</li>
</ul>


Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.
Strong operational updates Info Edge India (INFOE IN); Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) &amp; Sula Vineyards (SULA IN).  
The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.


[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". </li>
<li>The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. </li>
<li>The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.</li>
</ul>


We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". 
The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. 
The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.


<ul>
<li>Our popular, text-only weekly is back, hopefully in an improved version, and aims to be more consistent throughout this financial year.</li>
<li>The market structure and momentum seem to be positive. Upcoming earnings season and elections are likely to be key drivers going forward.</li>
<li>Stocks discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-cards-payment-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28662:1" rel="noopener">SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honasa-consumer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36117:1" rel="noopener">Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Our popular, text-only weekly is back, hopefully in an improved version, and aims to be more consistent throughout this financial year.
The market structure and momentum seem to be positive. Upcoming earnings season and elections are likely to be key drivers going forward.
Stocks discussed include Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN), Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) and Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) 


[#20] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Finance's Catch Up

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.

Pranav Bhavsar
Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist
• Trudence Capital Advisors

Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business

As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector...

Pranav Bhavsar

[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Pranav Bhavsar

[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

Market momentum remains strong as we head into earnings season, with positive operational updates from Info Edge India, Aavas Financiers Ltd, and...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

[#20] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Finance's Catch Up

Text-only weekly returning with improvements, Stocks discussed include Bajaj Finance, SBI Cards, Honasa Consumer, and Delta Corp.

Pranav Bhavsar

Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business

As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector...

Pranav Bhavsar

[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

​Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Pranav Bhavsar

[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

​Market momentum remains strong as we head into earnings season, with positive operational updates from Info Edge India, Aavas Financiers Ltd, and...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

​Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

[#20] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Finance's Catch Up

​Text-only weekly returning with improvements, Stocks discussed include Bajaj Finance, SBI Cards, Honasa Consumer, and Delta Corp.

Pranav Bhavsar

Industry margins under pressure, Voltas Ltd striving for market share. Other companies discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Vedant Fashions,...

Market momentum remains strong as we head into earnings season, with positive operational updates from Info Edge India, Aavas Financiers Ltd, and...

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Text-only weekly returning with improvements, Stocks discussed include Bajaj Finance, SBI Cards, Honasa Consumer, and Delta Corp.