Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, India Independent Insight

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

India Independent Insight

India Independent Insight (Iii), is a collaborative initiative by Nitin Mangal and Pranav Bhavsar. Nitin Mangal is a SEBI registered Independent Analyst (SEBI Reg. INH 000004723) and Pranav Bhavsar is a SEBI registered Investment Advisor (SEBI Reg. INA 000011510). With Iii our endeavor is to deliver Independent & Unbiased research on Indian Mid to large cap companies. Iii typically provides counter consensus views which cover forensic research along with on-ground primary research. Our research process is a combination of a deep dive on accounting, governance and channel checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

<ul>
<li>The markets closed below our stop of 19,900, primarily driven by weakness in global market sentiments. </li>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> while the street seems to be worried about asset quality, trends in whistle-blower complaints and the timing of the merger also raise alarms.  </li>
<li>Other names discussed this week include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/godrej-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3971:1" rel="noopener">Godrej Properties (GPL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


The markets closed below our stop of 19,900, primarily driven by weakness in global market sentiments. 
For HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) while the street seems to be worried about asset quality, trends in whistle-blower complaints and the timing of the merger also raise alarms.  
Other names discussed this week include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) and Godrej Properties (GPL IN).  


[Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

<ul>
<li>ATH for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>,  Going ahead, we expect the momentum in the market to continue. </li>
<li>Healthcare and Information Technology remain interesting pockets to watch when it comes to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)</a>. </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


ATH for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX),  Going ahead, we expect the momentum in the market to continue. 
Healthcare and Information Technology remain interesting pockets to watch when it comes to iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US). 
Other names discussed include Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN), Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN), Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) and Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN).  


[Week 3] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | Exports Could Improve Further

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Life is good for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at 20K. Strong domestic sentiment is likely to continue. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> posted strong operating metrics for August, but this will be the second last update as the company moves to quarterly disclosures for reasons not completely justified. </li>
<li>Other Ideas discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> and Landmark Cars along with upcoming IPOs. </li>
</ul>


Life is good for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at 20K. Strong domestic sentiment is likely to continue. 

Paytm (PAYTM IN) posted strong operating metrics for August, but this will be the second last update as the company moves to quarterly disclosures for reasons not completely justified. 
Other Ideas discussed include Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN) , Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) and Landmark Cars along with upcoming IPOs. 


[Week 2] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Withdrawing Disclosures

Whirlpool of India Ltd. manufactures appliances.  The Company produces refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, microwave ovens, water purifiers, built-in appliances and other products.

<ul>
<li>Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> may continue.</li>
<li>Bullish stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a>, while the sentiment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> is Bearish.</li>
<li>Highlighted global stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4022:1" rel="noopener">Ebix (EBIX US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smith-a-o-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18645:1" rel="noopener">Smith (A.O.) (AOS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may continue.
Bullish stocks include Metro Brands (METROBRA IN) and Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN), while the sentiment for Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) is Bearish.
Highlighted global stocks include Ebix (EBIX US) , Smith (A.O.) (AOS US) and Apple (AAPL US) 


[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Bottom-Up

FSN E-Commerce Ventures Private Limited providese-retailing beauty and personal care solutions. The Company offers comprehensive selection of makeup, skin and hair care, bath body, fragrance, grooming appliances, personal care, and health and welness categories. FSN E-Commerce Ventures serves customers worldwide.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)

<ul>
<li>As part of our Narrative and Numbers themed Annual Report insights, we shift our focus to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We focus on Nykaa Fashion due to its financial significance in spite of not being a material subsidiary warranting the need for board review on materiality policy.</li>
<li>Notable issues demanding scrutiny include (1) Declining Financials, (2) Inconsistent Reporting, (3) Misleading Narrative, and (4) Elevated Executive Compensation.</li>
</ul>


As part of our Narrative and Numbers themed Annual Report insights, we shift our focus to FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN).
We focus on Nykaa Fashion due to its financial significance in spite of not being a material subsidiary warranting the need for board review on materiality policy.
Notable issues demanding scrutiny include (1) Declining Financials, (2) Inconsistent Reporting, (3) Misleading Narrative, and (4) Elevated Executive Compensation.


NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.

Pranav Bhavsar
Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist
• India Independent Insight

[Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?

Global market sentiments drove the markets down; concerns for HDFC Bank other names discussed are Delta Corp & Godrej Properties.

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 3] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | Exports Could Improve Further

NIFTY Index hits ATH, market momentum expected to continue. Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Unilever, Bandhan Bank, and Vedant Fashions are names discussed.

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 2] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Withdrawing Disclosures

Strong domestic sentiment continues as the NIFTY Index reaches 20K. Paytm's strong August metrics. Other discussed ideas include Poonawalla...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change

We highlight concerns about FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), focusing on Nykaa Fashion's declining financials, inconsistent reporting, misleading...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?

​Global market sentiments drove the markets down; concerns for HDFC Bank other names discussed are Delta Corp & Godrej Properties.

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 3] Namaste India 🙏 | Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | Exports Could Improve Further

​NIFTY Index hits ATH, market momentum expected to continue. Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Unilever, Bandhan Bank, and Vedant Fashions are names discussed.

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 2] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Withdrawing Disclosures

​Strong domestic sentiment continues as the NIFTY Index reaches 20K. Paytm's strong August metrics. Other discussed ideas include Poonawalla...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change

We highlight concerns about FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), focusing on Nykaa Fashion's declining financials, inconsistent reporting, misleading...

Pranav Bhavsar

Global market sentiments drove the markets down; concerns for HDFC Bank other names discussed are Delta Corp & Godrej Properties.

NIFTY Index hits ATH, market momentum expected to continue. Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Unilever, Bandhan Bank, and Vedant Fashions are names discussed.

Strong domestic sentiment continues as the NIFTY Index reaches 20K. Paytm's strong August metrics. Other discussed ideas include Poonawalla...