Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited offers housing loan services. The Company provides home loans for salaried employees, self employed, plot purchase, construction, home improvement, extension, and loans against property, as well as balance transfer services. Aadhar Housing Finance serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>Branches visited - Ajmer, Bengaluru, Mandya, Mysuru, Jaipur, Solapur, Pimpri and Pune.</li>
<li>Business growth is driven by taking calls that peers are reluctant to take with regards to property and incomes.</li>
<li>Lack of team and increasing competition are primary concerns that also warrant attention. </li>
</ul>


Branches visited - Ajmer, Bengaluru, Mandya, Mysuru, Jaipur, Solapur, Pimpri and Pune.
Business growth is driven by taking calls that peers are reluctant to take with regards to property and incomes.
Lack of team and increasing competition are primary concerns that also warrant attention. 


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO | Takeaways from Branch Visits

Equity Bottom-Up

Shoppers Stop Ltd. operates a chain of retail shops.  The Company retails men's, women's, and children's clothing; cosmetics and skin and hair care products;  home appliances; housewares; linens; luggage; jewelry; and accessories.

<ul>
<li>As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. </li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shoppers-stop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12804:1" rel="noopener">Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.</li>
</ul>


As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. 
Names discussed include Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) , Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) &amp; Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN).  
Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.


Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

Bajaj Finance Limited is a financial services company that operates branches in India, which provide an assortment of financial services.

<ul>
<li>As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector or industry.</li>
<li>Companies highlighted include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-finance-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9661:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aavas-financiers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27422:1" rel="noopener">Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)</a> .</li>
<li>BAF's negative commentary around rural B2C business is surprising and an area that warrants further investigation.</li>
</ul>


As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector or industry.
Companies highlighted include Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN); Shriram Finance (SHFL IN); L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN) ; Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN) &amp; Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) .
BAF's negative commentary around rural B2C business is surprising and an area that warrants further investigation.


Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

<ul>
<li>Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> is trying hard to gain market share.</li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnb-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23613:1" rel="noopener">PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/varun-beverages-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23653:1" rel="noopener">Varun Beverages (VBL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> show up as interesting ARs to read. </li>
</ul>


Our flash checks across a couple of dealers indicate pressure on margins across the industry. Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) is trying hard to gain market share.
Other names discussed include PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 

Varun Beverages (VBL IN) and Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) show up as interesting ARs to read. 


[#22] Namaste India 🙏 | Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Margin Pressure to Continue

Aavas Financiers Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers home, land purchase, construction, home improvement, balance transfer, and business loans. Aavas Financiers serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Strong operational updates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aavas-financiers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27422:1" rel="noopener">Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards (SULA IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.</li>
</ul>


Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.
Strong operational updates Info Edge India (INFOE IN); Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) &amp; Sula Vineyards (SULA IN).  
The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.


[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.