Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

SGX Baltic Capesize Time Charter Average (5 Routes) 180 Futures / Commodities

The freight market is a crucial cog in the world of global trade, transporting the majority of raw materials and manufactured goods from one part of the world to another. The last decade has seen unprecedented volatility in the shipping world, with freight rates rising and falling in a spectacular fashion – driven by factors such as demand and supply dynamics of seaborne trading volumes, and the number and types of shipping vessels.

To help participants manage freight rate risk or to gain exposure to market volatility, SGX provides a range of shipping derivative contracts on the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize timecharters, as well as key individual voyage routes that ship owners, chartering and trading companies as well as users in the key dry bulk markets of iron ore and thermal coal can use.

SGX Baltic Capesize Time Charter Average (5 Routes) 180 Futures (CWF INDEX)

SGX Baltic Capesize Time Charter Average (5 Routes) 180 Futures

<ul>
<li>Capesize futures gained 87% in H1 2026, with June’s 35% reversal erased as Middle East tensions eased, before prices recovered in July.</li>
<li>Chinese commodity demand remains a key support: YTD iron ore imports rose 6.4%, aluminium ores 18%, while longer Guinea- and Brazil-origin voyages tighten effective Capesize supply.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains more bullish for Capesize: H1 put/call ratio was 0.38 versus 0.47 for Panamax, with August Capesize calls nearly three times puts and 40k a key upside strike</li>
</ul>


Capesize futures gained 87% in H1 2026, with June’s 35% reversal erased as Middle East tensions eased, before prices recovered in July.
Chinese commodity demand remains a key support: YTD iron ore imports rose 6.4%, aluminium ores 18%, while longer Guinea- and Brazil-origin voyages tighten effective Capesize supply.
Options positioning remains more bullish for Capesize: H1 put/call ratio was 0.38 versus 0.47 for Panamax, with August Capesize calls nearly three times puts and 40k a key upside strike


Dry Bulk Freight Derivatives Chartbook (H1 2026 and Beyond)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Small-Cap valuations were historically depressed, with the Russell 2000 trading at a 26% EV/EBIT discount versus the S&amp;P 500, fueling the recovery.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 outperformance reflected stronger risk appetite, with its high-beta Dynamic segment returning 61.2% versus 28.0% for Defensive stocks.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 rally stalled after the 26 June FTSE Russell reconstitution graduated 42 stocks to the Russell 1000, including top performers like Bloom Energy. </li>
</ul>


Small-Cap valuations were historically depressed, with the Russell 2000 trading at a 26% EV/EBIT discount versus the S&amp;P 500, fueling the recovery.
Russell 2000 outperformance reflected stronger risk appetite, with its high-beta Dynamic segment returning 61.2% versus 28.0% for Defensive stocks.
The Russell 2000 rally stalled after the 26 June FTSE Russell reconstitution graduated 42 stocks to the Russell 1000, including top performers like Bloom Energy. 


Beyond the Megacaps: How Valuation, AI Rotation, and Russell Reconstitution Shaped a Smallcap Rally

The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. The index is a composite of three sub-indices that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers: Capesize, which typically transport iron ore or coal cargoes of about 150,000 tonnes; Panamax, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes; and Supramax, with a carrying capacity between 48,000 and 60,000 tonnes. The Baltic Dry Index takes into account 23 different shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains and many other commodities.

<ul>
<li>Capesize futures outperformed significantly, rising 127% versus 63% for Panamax from January to April, as Chinese iron ore restocking, higher fuel costs, and vessel constraints favored larger vessels.</li>
<li>Options markets remained decisively bullish, with Capesize and Panamax volume PCR of 0.34 and 0.27 respectively, while growing call activity in 2027 expiries signals expectations of a prolonged pricing impact.</li>
<li>The Middle-East conflict triggered a rise in freight risk premiums and volatility, but April’s moderation in IV and slowing OI growth suggest traders may expect stabilization rather than further escalation.</li>
</ul>


Capesize futures outperformed significantly, rising 127% versus 63% for Panamax from January to April, as Chinese iron ore restocking, higher fuel costs, and vessel constraints favored larger vessels.
Options markets remained decisively bullish, with Capesize and Panamax volume PCR of 0.34 and 0.27 respectively, while growing call activity in 2027 expiries signals expectations of a prolonged pricing impact.
The Middle-East conflict triggered a rise in freight risk premiums and volatility, but April’s moderation in IV and slowing OI growth suggest traders may expect stabilization rather than further escalation.


Dry Bulk Freight Derivatives Chartbook (Jan-April 2026)

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Record imports, swelling inventories - China imported 119.65Mt in December (record), lifting port inventories by 10Mt in January and ~30Mt over four months, capping further pre-Lunar New Year restocking demand.</li>
<li>IODEX futures reversed early gains, remain in a downtrend, and face a potential 21DMA/100DMA bearish crossover, with seasonal patterns pointing to post-LNY weakness.</li>
<li>Skew fell sharply during the rally and remains softer, while higher convexity in later expiries signals far OTM demand pushed beyond February, reflecting muted near-term volatility expectations.</li>
</ul>


Record imports, swelling inventories - China imported 119.65Mt in December (record), lifting port inventories by 10Mt in January and ~30Mt over four months, capping further pre-Lunar New Year restocking demand.
IODEX futures reversed early gains, remain in a downtrend, and face a potential 21DMA/100DMA bearish crossover, with seasonal patterns pointing to post-LNY weakness.
Skew fell sharply during the rally and remains softer, while higher convexity in later expiries signals far OTM demand pushed beyond February, reflecting muted near-term volatility expectations.


Iron Ore Monthly (January 2026): Record Chinese Imports, Rising Inventories, And Rising Put Interest

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite hawkish guidance and hints of further hikes, the yen weakened 1% after December and 0.5% after January, signaling that markets see policy as insufficient.</li>
<li>Yen strength on 23/Jan was driven by a New York Fed spot check rumor, not BoJ policy; without actual intervention, history shows weakness typically resumes.</li>
<li>A &gt;1% rise in the Dollar Index on prospects of a hawkish Fed Chair has removed a key support, turning USD strength into an active headwind for the yen.</li>
</ul>


Despite hawkish guidance and hints of further hikes, the yen weakened 1% after December and 0.5% after January, signaling that markets see policy as insufficient.
Yen strength on 23/Jan was driven by a New York Fed spot check rumor, not BoJ policy; without actual intervention, history shows weakness typically resumes.
A &gt;1% rise in the Dollar Index on prospects of a hawkish Fed Chair has removed a key support, turning USD strength into an active headwind for the yen.


Why Hawkish BoJ Signals and Intervention Risk Have Not Reversed the Yen Weakness

Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.