Asia Economist, Founder, Asia Decoded

Priyanka Kishore

Asia Economist, Founder

Asia Decoded

Independent, data-centric insights that help you stay on top of Asia's economics and geopolitics.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump offers another three weeks of reprieve on reciprocal tariffs with an extension of the deadline to 1 Aug from 9 July</li>
<li>Tariffs remain cumbersome for Asia despite some reductions. Japan and Malaysia see 1ppt increase.</li>
<li>Ongoing development reinforce our core views of a slowdown in H2 and more monetary easing. However, relative forecasts are subject to re-evaluation.</li>
</ul>


Trump offers another three weeks of reprieve on reciprocal tariffs with an extension of the deadline to 1 Aug from 9 July
Tariffs remain cumbersome for Asia despite some reductions. Japan and Malaysia see 1ppt increase.
Ongoing development reinforce our core views of a slowdown in H2 and more monetary easing. However, relative forecasts are subject to re-evaluation.


Tariff Update - Asia Remains in Trump's Crosshairs

<ul>
<li>After a slow start in Q1, ASEAN has benefitted from front-loading of exports and favourable tariff differentials with China in Q2. But the momentum is likely to falter in H2.</li>
<li>With the 9 July deadline for reciprocal tariffs approaching and limited progress in trade talks with the US, tariffs could increase for the region within days.</li>
<li>Even if tariffs remain unchanged, exports and growth will likely slow as businesses and consumers adjust to higher costs and inventory restocking in the US gives way to declining demand.</li>
</ul>


After a slow start in Q1, ASEAN has benefitted from front-loading of exports and favourable tariff differentials with China in Q2. But the momentum is likely to falter in H2.
With the 9 July deadline for reciprocal tariffs approaching and limited progress in trade talks with the US, tariffs could increase for the region within days.
Even if tariffs remain unchanged, exports and growth will likely slow as businesses and consumers adjust to higher costs and inventory restocking in the US gives way to declining demand.


Chartbook - ASEAN's Tariff Advantage Is Unlikely to Sustain

<ul>
<li>Despite the ongoing trade talks and tariff de-escalation between the US and China, there is no denying that US trade barriers have risen substantially.</li>
<li>The downside risks to growth are high for export-oriented Asia and warrant a stronger policy response from central banks.</li>
<li>Their cautious approach risks a sharper slowdown and output falling further behind pre-pandemic trend.</li>
</ul>


Despite the ongoing trade talks and tariff de-escalation between the US and China, there is no denying that US trade barriers have risen substantially.
The downside risks to growth are high for export-oriented Asia and warrant a stronger policy response from central banks.
Their cautious approach risks a sharper slowdown and output falling further behind pre-pandemic trend.


<ul>
<li>China's exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in. </li>
<li>But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.</li>
<li>This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing's struggles to lift consumption at home.</li>
</ul>


China's exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in. 
But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.
This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing's struggles to lift consumption at home.


<ul>
<li>The swift escalation in the US-China trade war would ordinarily have been a trigger for faster supply chain diversification.</li>
<li>But this is unlikely amid skyrocketing uncertainty. Investments will likely slow to a crawl over 2025-26, as firms delay decisions on expansions and relocation of production to new destinations.</li>
<li>Firms cannot move manufacturing to the US at the rapid pace at which tariffs are being implemented, without running into production bottlenecks and higher costs.</li>
</ul>


The swift escalation in the US-China trade war would ordinarily have been a trigger for faster supply chain diversification.
But this is unlikely amid skyrocketing uncertainty. Investments will likely slow to a crawl over 2025-26, as firms delay decisions on expansions and relocation of production to new destinations.
Firms cannot move manufacturing to the US at the rapid pace at which tariffs are being implemented, without running into production bottlenecks and higher costs.


'China Plus' Is Collateral Damage of 'America First'

Experienced economist with two decades of expertise in analysing macro-economic and policy trends across Asia. Founder of Asia Decoded, a macro consultancy providing advisory services to policy makers, think tanks, corporates and institutional investors. Prior to that Chief India and SEA Economist for Oxford Economics and senior economist and strategist in the banking sector.

Available for bespoke research, presentations and speaking engagements.

Priyanka Kishore
Asia Economist, Founder
• Asia Decoded

Tariff Update - Asia Remains in Trump's Crosshairs

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Trump tariffs are unlikely to give a strong immediate push to supply chain diversification. We expect the impact to be quite the opposite amid...

Priyanka Kishore

Tariff Update - Asia Remains in Trump's Crosshairs

​Trump extends deadline for reciprocal tariffs, but tariffs still a burden for Asia. Economic slowdown in H2 expected, with potential for more...

Priyanka Kishore

Chartbook - ASEAN's Tariff Advantage Is Unlikely to Sustain

Looming tariffs and external risks from slowing demand cloud ASEAN's H2 outlook. The export boost is unlikely to last into H2.

Priyanka Kishore

Asia Needs Self-Help

Bank Indonesia acknowledged the growth risks with another 25bp cut, and more easing is clearly on the way. But with risks tilted towards downside...

Priyanka Kishore

The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering

​China's exports to the US decreased in April due to tariffs, but overall exports remained steady with a rise in exports to other countries.

Priyanka Kishore

'China Plus' Is Collateral Damage of 'America First'

Trump tariffs are unlikely to give a strong immediate push to supply chain diversification. We expect the impact to be quite the opposite amid...

Priyanka Kishore

Trump extends deadline for reciprocal tariffs, but tariffs still a burden for Asia. Economic slowdown in H2 expected, with potential for more...

China's exports to the US decreased in April due to tariffs, but overall exports remained steady with a rise in exports to other countries.