Asia Economist, Founder, Asia Decoded

Priyanka Kishore

Asia Economist, Founder

Asia Decoded

Independent, data-centric insights that help you stay on top of Asia's economics and geopolitics.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Middle East war is tightening energy supplies, worsening terms of trade, and narrowing the policy space to cushion the blow simultaneously.</li>
<li>In the short-term, the downside risks are highest for the Philippines, Vietnam, India and Thailand.</li>
<li>A prolonged supply interruption extending beyond four to five months will likely amplify recessions risks for Singapore, Thailand, S Korea, Japan and Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


The Middle East war is tightening energy supplies, worsening terms of trade, and narrowing the policy space to cushion the blow simultaneously.
In the short-term, the downside risks are highest for the Philippines, Vietnam, India and Thailand.
A prolonged supply interruption extending beyond four to five months will likely amplify recessions risks for Singapore, Thailand, S Korea, Japan and Taiwan.


<ul>
<li>Asia has enough stockpiles to weather at least a month of crude import disruptions.</li>
<li>It'll still likely feel the impact of higher oil prices through rising import bills, deteriorating current account balances and weaker currencies.</li>
<li>Monetary policy will likely prioritise inflation over growth, pushing the bar for rate cuts higher.</li>
</ul>


Asia has enough stockpiles to weather at least a month of crude import disruptions.
It'll still likely feel the impact of higher oil prices through rising import bills, deteriorating current account balances and weaker currencies.
Monetary policy will likely prioritise inflation over growth, pushing the bar for rate cuts higher.


<ul>
<li>The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. potential avenues.</li>
<li>Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.</li>
<li>Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are likely to be renegotiated to take into account Section 232 and potential tariffs from other avenues.</li>
</ul>


The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. potential avenues.
Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.
Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are likely to be renegotiated to take into account Section 232 and potential tariffs from other avenues.


Updated : IEEPA Ruling Is a Silver Lining

<ul>
<li>The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. </li>
<li>Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.</li>
<li>Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia are likely to be re-negotiated to take into account Section 232v and tariffs under other potential avenues.</li>
</ul>


The court ruling reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. 
Focus will now shift to sectoral tariffs from across-the-board country tariffs.
Signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia are likely to be re-negotiated to take into account Section 232v and tariffs under other potential avenues.


<ul>
<li>India's terms, as set out in the framework for the agreement, appear generous relative to its SEA peers.</li>
<li>The US deal offers a window to build export momentum and expand manufacturing, that India should capitalize to the best of its ability.</li>
<li>More importantly, New Delhi should use the breathing space afforded by the truce with the Washington to focus on the long-term reforms required to lift the economy.</li>
</ul>


India's terms, as set out in the framework for the agreement, appear generous relative to its SEA peers.
The US deal offers a window to build export momentum and expand manufacturing, that India should capitalize to the best of its ability.
More importantly, New Delhi should use the breathing space afforded by the truce with the Washington to focus on the long-term reforms required to lift the economy.


India : Making the Best of the US Trade Deal

Experienced economist with two decades of expertise in analysing macro-economic and policy trends across Asia. Founder of Asia Decoded, a macro consultancy providing advisory services to policy makers, think tanks, corporates and institutional investors. Prior to that Chief India and SEA Economist for Oxford Economics and senior economist and strategist in the banking sector.

Available for bespoke research, presentations and speaking engagements.