Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

<ul>
<li>Structurally, Square’s NAV trade still works. The Hynix stake alone implies a 60%+ discount, well above local norms, with policy tailwinds supporting long-term compression.</li>
<li>Near term, Square’s NAV is a derivative of retail Hynix flows. Today was the first real unwind since the 10th, with retail net selling roughly 5x yesterday’s retail net-sell.</li>
<li>Retail sold both, but Hynix again dominated the tape. Retail is range-trading ₩500ks, and that behavior is the key driver of Square’s short-term NAV inflection.</li>
</ul>


Structurally, Square’s NAV trade still works. The Hynix stake alone implies a 60%+ discount, well above local norms, with policy tailwinds supporting long-term compression.
Near term, Square’s NAV is a derivative of retail Hynix flows. Today was the first real unwind since the 10th, with retail net selling roughly 5x yesterday’s retail net-sell.
Retail sold both, but Hynix again dominated the tape. Retail is range-trading ₩500ks, and that behavior is the key driver of Square’s short-term NAV inflection.


Retail Range-Trading Hynix Is Driving Short-Term Inflection in Square NAV Trade

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

<ul>
<li>Names outside the new tax regime may hike year-end payouts, with gov’t push boosting odds despite fuzzy timing, drawing local desk interest.</li>
<li>With timing murky, local desks are targeting high-yield names, 25–40% FY25 payout, and ~10%+ DPS growth as prime candidates for year-end dividend hikes ahead of AGMs.</li>
<li>Nine first-tier names (25–40% payout, &lt;10% DPS growth, 3%+ yield) are prime dividend plays; five second-tier names (20–25% payout) need monitoring for potential Q4 expense tweaks.</li>
</ul>


Names outside the new tax regime may hike year-end payouts, with gov’t push boosting odds despite fuzzy timing, drawing local desk interest.
With timing murky, local desks are targeting high-yield names, 25–40% FY25 payout, and ~10%+ DPS growth as prime candidates for year-end dividend hikes ahead of AGMs.
Nine first-tier names (25–40% payout, &lt;10% DPS growth, 3%+ yield) are prime dividend plays; five second-tier names (20–25% payout) need monitoring for potential Q4 expense tweaks.


Local Desks Target Year-End Dividend Boost Trading Setup

<ul>
<li>“Effective immediately” matters for L2 exit timing and re-flag risk; KRX confirmed year-end announcement with instant rollout, making year-end the key flow inflection if big L2 names get exempted.</li>
<li>Large caps (₩10tn+ market cap) pulled from market-warning universe, with L2 tagging now factoring relative outperformance, not just absolute price gains, to curb overuse.</li>
<li>Of 33 L2 names, five KOSPI blue chips see re-flag risk drop after their mandatory 10-day lockup; near-term trades focus on timing these expiries for relief rallies and flow resets.</li>
</ul>


“Effective immediately” matters for L2 exit timing and re-flag risk; KRX confirmed year-end announcement with instant rollout, making year-end the key flow inflection if big L2 names get exempted.
Large caps (₩10tn+ market cap) pulled from market-warning universe, with L2 tagging now factoring relative outperformance, not just absolute price gains, to curb overuse.
Of 33 L2 names, five KOSPI blue chips see re-flag risk drop after their mandatory 10-day lockup; near-term trades focus on timing these expiries for relief rallies and flow resets.


Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; &lt;100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.</li>
<li>The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.</li>
<li>Companies &gt;5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.</li>
</ul>


Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; &lt;100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
Companies &gt;5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.


Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix and SK Square hit L2 flags; cash-only until Dec 24. Margin off, &gt;40% two-day rip triggers halt. L2 lifts if below T-5/+45%, T-15/+75%, and 15-day high.</li>
<li>L2’s usually a non-event, but this time the margin freeze probably smacks Hynix harder. Key trigger is staying below the 15-day high: Hynix ₩587,000, Square ₩324,000.</li>
<li>Govt set to roll out AI-semiconductor holdco deregulation this week, boosting AI holdcos like Square and juicing a near-term Square-over-Hynix trade opportunity.</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix and SK Square hit L2 flags; cash-only until Dec 24. Margin off, &gt;40% two-day rip triggers halt. L2 lifts if below T-5/+45%, T-15/+75%, and 15-day high.
L2’s usually a non-event, but this time the margin freeze probably smacks Hynix harder. Key trigger is staying below the 15-day high: Hynix ₩587,000, Square ₩324,000.
Govt set to roll out AI-semiconductor holdco deregulation this week, boosting AI holdcos like Square and juicing a near-term Square-over-Hynix trade opportunity.


Hynix & Square L2 Flags Set to Squeeze Spread Near Term

I investigate special situations in Korea.

Sanghyun Park
Korea / Special Situations
• Clepsydra Capital

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