Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Samsung sticks to legacy record dates and is unlikely to adjust dividends intra year, with special returns typically confirmed only after earnings and FCF are effectively locked.</li>
<li>Year end FCF driven special return setup is creating pre positioning flow and dividend arb via uncertainty and spot futures dislocation as market front runs mix.</li>
<li>Mirae shows wide special dividend range with no Samsung guidance, while market consensus anchors FCF at 250 to 270 trillion implying 115 to 125 trillion for special plus buyback split.</li>
</ul>


Samsung sticks to legacy record dates and is unlikely to adjust dividends intra year, with special returns typically confirmed only after earnings and FCF are effectively locked.
Year end FCF driven special return setup is creating pre positioning flow and dividend arb via uncertainty and spot futures dislocation as market front runs mix.
Mirae shows wide special dividend range with no Samsung guidance, while market consensus anchors FCF at 250 to 270 trillion implying 115 to 125 trillion for special plus buyback split.


Local Read Through on Samsung Special Dividend Sizing for This Year

Index Rebalance

IsuPetasys Co., Ltd. manufactures printed circuit boards (PCBs) specializing in high multilayer PCBs.  The Company exports its products to Cisco Systems, Brocade Communications Systems, and Sun Microsystems in the United States.

<ul>
<li>FnGuide MKF500 rebal: Fadu finally added, SK Square and ISU Petasys surprisingly reclassified into semis, driving notable passive flow impact into the KRW 15tn semis ETF complex.</li>
<li>TIGER Semis Top 10 is pure free float MCAP screen, all three already Top 10, so inclusion basically locked if rankings hold.</li>
<li>Other five depend on keyword scoring so lower visibility, but still high inclusion odds; expect stacked FnGuide passive flows from June 12 through July and October driving heavy positioning.</li>
</ul>


FnGuide MKF500 rebal: Fadu finally added, SK Square and ISU Petasys surprisingly reclassified into semis, driving notable passive flow impact into the KRW 15tn semis ETF complex.
TIGER Semis Top 10 is pure free float MCAP screen, all three already Top 10, so inclusion basically locked if rankings hold.
Other five depend on keyword scoring so lower visibility, but still high inclusion odds; expect stacked FnGuide passive flows from June 12 through July and October driving heavy positioning.


FnGuide MKF500 Rebal: Fadu Finally Added, Key Surprises Are SK Square & ISU Petasys Now Semis

Samsung Kodex Kosdaq Global ETF / Event-Driven

SAMSUNG KODEX KOSDAQ Global ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in South Korea. The objective of the fund is to achieve return that closely replicates the performance of KOSDAQ Global Index.The fund invests more than 60% in equity,invests less than 40% in collective investment securities.

Samsung Kodex Kosdaq Global ETF (461450 KS)

<ul>
<li>Premium Standard split driven by market cap financials and governance, 100 names with semi annual rebalance, watchlist carve out, plus dedicated index and ETF launches within one month post rollout.</li>
<li>Desks focus on KOSDAQ Global as Premium proxy, with strong screen overlap and KRX signals, driving outperformance versus KOSDAQ 150 now above 8 percent points YTD.</li>
<li>Desks overweight KOSDAQ Global or run long short versus KOSDAQ 150, with biotech focus on Classys Hugel Pharmaresearch, driven by Premium inclusion odds ahead of October rollout.</li>
</ul>


Premium Standard split driven by market cap financials and governance, 100 names with semi annual rebalance, watchlist carve out, plus dedicated index and ETF launches within one month post rollout.
Desks focus on KOSDAQ Global as Premium proxy, with strong screen overlap and KRX signals, driving outperformance versus KOSDAQ 150 now above 8 percent points YTD.
Desks overweight KOSDAQ Global or run long short versus KOSDAQ 150, with biotech focus on Classys Hugel Pharmaresearch, driven by Premium inclusion odds ahead of October rollout.


Intel on KOSDAQ Premium and Front Running Direction from Local Desks

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

<ul>
<li>Add delete came in heavier than expected, ETF AUM close to 4tn won, driving meaningful flow impact and sharp reaction given light positioning and low pre visibility.</li>
<li>Beyond adds and deletes, the 15 percent cap reweighting in Samsung Electronics and Hynix adds another meaningful layer of passive flow driven demand and supply pressure.</li>
<li>22 names screen high passive impact, with 7 add delete flags. SK Square stands out with back to back ETF flows, driving two day flow driven distortion into the setup.</li>
</ul>


Add delete came in heavier than expected, ETF AUM close to 4tn won, driving meaningful flow impact and sharp reaction given light positioning and low pre visibility.
Beyond adds and deletes, the 15 percent cap reweighting in Samsung Electronics and Hynix adds another meaningful layer of passive flow driven demand and supply pressure.
22 names screen high passive impact, with 7 add delete flags. SK Square stands out with back to back ETF flows, driving two day flow driven distortion into the setup.


KRX Value Up June Rebal: 22 Names High Passive Impact, SK Square Stands Out

<ul>
<li>Despite KRW 37T headline cost, cash impact is mainly tax, so FCF drag is limited; street sees KRW 125T returns split into KRW 10T base dividend, 45T special, 70T buybacks.</li>
<li>Implied DPS ~KRW 8300, ~3.6% SO retired; yields ~2.6% on commons and ~4.2% on prefs.</li>
<li>Buybacks may skew prefs, pricing that optionality; with labor risk gone, focus shifts to returns, 37% pref spread and ~4% yield could drive yield rotation and spread compression.</li>
</ul>


Despite KRW 37T headline cost, cash impact is mainly tax, so FCF drag is limited; street sees KRW 125T returns split into KRW 10T base dividend, 45T special, 70T buybacks.
Implied DPS ~KRW 8300, ~3.6% SO retired; yields ~2.6% on commons and ~4.2% on prefs.
Buybacks may skew prefs, pricing that optionality; with labor risk gone, focus shifts to returns, 37% pref spread and ~4% yield could drive yield rotation and spread compression.


Samsung FCF Estimate Factoring in Bonus Hit

Clepsydra Capital
Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Local Read Through on Samsung Special Dividend Sizing for This Year

This is a local read through on current market positioning and street consensus views around Samsung special dividend sizing for this year.

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide MKF500 Rebal: Fadu Finally Added, Key Surprises Are SK Square & ISU Petasys Now Semis

FnGuide MKF500 June rebalancing results are out: Fadu finally included, but key surprises are SK Square and ISU Petasys being reclassified into...

Sanghyun Park

Intel on KOSDAQ Premium and Front Running Direction from Local Desks

This post provides intel on the KOSDAQ Premium set to launch this October and how local desks are front running the flows and positioning.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Value Up June Rebal: 22 Names High Passive Impact, SK Square Stands Out

KRX Value Up June rebalance screens 22 names for outsized passive impact with SK Square standing out on flow sensitivity and setup.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung FCF Estimate Factoring in Bonus Hit

This post estimates Samsung Electronics FY FCF including bonus impact, which could drive yield rotation and tighten the preferred common spread.

Sanghyun Park