Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

<ul>
<li>The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.</li>
<li>Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.</li>
<li>Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.</li>
</ul>


The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.
Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.
Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.


October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix

Index Rebalance

Simmtech Co., Ltd. manufactures Printed Circuit Board (PCB) modules.  The Company's Memory Module PCBs are used to expand the semiconductor memory and the Mobile Phone Boards are used in communication devices such as mobile phones and navigation devices.

<ul>
<li>Jusung and Hanmi Semiconductor remain mcap Top 4, but weak momentum Z scores keep both low probability inclusion candidates for Monday’s 0167A0 rebalance.</li>
<li>Samsung and Hynix stay Top 2; Samsung E-M, Square, Isu and Daeduck hold Top 4. TES stays, with Simmtech, Fadu and Hana Micron likely replacing PSK, VM and Wonik IPS.</li>
<li>Simmtech is the strongest inclusion candidate, with ~KRW 200bn passive inflow, over 4% of float and ~1x recent DTV, making it a key name to watch Monday.</li>
</ul>


Jusung and Hanmi Semiconductor remain mcap Top 4, but weak momentum Z scores keep both low probability inclusion candidates for Monday’s 0167A0 rebalance.
Samsung and Hynix stay Top 2; Samsung E-M, Square, Isu and Daeduck hold Top 4. TES stays, with Simmtech, Fadu and Hana Micron likely replacing PSK, VM and Wonik IPS.
Simmtech is the strongest inclusion candidate, with ~KRW 200bn passive inflow, over 4% of float and ~1x recent DTV, making it a key name to watch Monday.


Regarding Next Monday’s SOL AI Semis TOP 2 Plus Rebalance

HPSP Co., Ltd operates as a manufacturing company. The Company manufactures semiconductor devices, systems and others. HPSP also provides related solution services.

<ul>
<li>FnGuide confirms October's TIGER Semiconductor Top 10 rebalance is on schedule, with HPSP already moving into the top 10, ahead of DB HiTek by over KRW 0.2tn in market cap.</li>
<li>With top three accounting for 75%, the remaining 25% is still a sizeable passive pool, with HPSP seeing 5.7% of SO, 7.3% of float and 4x DTV in rebalance flow.</li>
<li>Local semis sentiment is weak, but local institutions, especially hedgies, are building HPSP exposure, driving outperformance and supporting an early long entry with sector beta hedged short.</li>
</ul>


FnGuide confirms October's TIGER Semiconductor Top 10 rebalance is on schedule, with HPSP already moving into the top 10, ahead of DB HiTek by over KRW 0.2tn in market cap.
With top three accounting for 75%, the remaining 25% is still a sizeable passive pool, with HPSP seeing 5.7% of SO, 7.3% of float and 4x DTV in rebalance flow.
Local semis sentiment is weak, but local institutions, especially hedgies, are building HPSP exposure, driving outperformance and supporting an early long entry with sector beta hedged short.


Early HPSP Positioning Ahead of TIGER Semis Top 10 Oct Rebalance

SK Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holdings company that is engaged in various industries including energy, chemicals, information technology, semiconductors, marketing, and services businesses in South Korea and internationally.

<ul>
<li>These are all indicative numbers. Both the per share price and the total deal value can be adjusted on the actual execution date</li>
<li>The November 2 to December 1 window reflects disclosure rules, not a 30 day sell down. Given the block plus PRS structure, base case is November 2.</li>
<li>November 2 is the settlement date, implying October 29 execution via pre market block trade, with October 28 close as the pricing reference.</li>
</ul>


These are all indicative numbers. Both the per share price and the total deal value can be adjusted on the actual execution date
The November 2 to December 1 window reflects disclosure rules, not a 30 day sell down. Given the block plus PRS structure, base case is November 2.
November 2 is the settlement date, implying October 29 execution via pre market block trade, with October 28 close as the pricing reference.


Clarifying the Confusion Around Chey’s SK Holdings Stake Sale Disclosure

<ul>
<li>For memory swing traders, October 7’s MTD reply is the key catalyst, with Hynix potentially front running it by disclosing HBM customer commitments and 2027 capacity allocation.</li>
<li>Samsung’s HBM capacity messaging strengthens the supply trade off case, while Hynix could go further with customer commitments and allocation data to support an AI driven capacity reallocation narrative.</li>
<li>For Hynix, hard 2027 HBM capacity numbers or incremental customer commitments would matter far more than another generic capacity update, potentially driving estimates and near term share price volatility higher.</li>
</ul>


For memory swing traders, October 7’s MTD reply is the key catalyst, with Hynix potentially front running it by disclosing HBM customer commitments and 2027 capacity allocation.
Samsung’s HBM capacity messaging strengthens the supply trade off case, while Hynix could go further with customer commitments and allocation data to support an AI driven capacity reallocation narrative.
For Hynix, hard 2027 HBM capacity numbers or incremental customer commitments would matter far more than another generic capacity update, potentially driving estimates and near term share price volatility higher.


Hynix Could Follow Samsung With Key Disclosure Ahead of Oct 7 MTD Reply

Clepsydra Capital
Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

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Hynix Could Follow Samsung With Key Disclosure Ahead of Oct 7 MTD Reply

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