Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&amp;M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.</li>
<li>Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> mean there is further upside.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&amp;M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.
Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) mean there is further upside.


High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a>  reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2025 results on Friday which fell below consensus estimates. However, earnings were in line with the company’s guidance.</li>
<li>Labour markets have begun to cool off with concerns over potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty, and the company expects top line to decline in FY03/2026E.</li>
<li>Though the company’s monetisation efforts have paid off, we expect Recruit’s earnings to remain under pressure and think there’s opportunity to gain on the Short side.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)  reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2025 results on Friday which fell below consensus estimates. However, earnings were in line with the company’s guidance.
Labour markets have begun to cool off with concerns over potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty, and the company expects top line to decline in FY03/2026E.
Though the company’s monetisation efforts have paid off, we expect Recruit’s earnings to remain under pressure and think there’s opportunity to gain on the Short side.


Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

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<li>Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron's biologic medicines.</li>
<li>Fujifilm's Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.</li>
<li>Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.</li>
</ul>


Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron's biologic medicines.
Fujifilm's Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.
Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.


Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

Taimee, Inc. develops software products. The Company produces internet media softwares, application programs, and other products. Taimee also provides marketing, brand promotion, and other services.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. </li>
<li>Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. </li>
<li>Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. 
Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. 
Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.


Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneta-money-bank-as-91531fc9-8a67-43d7-8182-cf45abd5ebca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28372:1" rel="noopener"></a> MF’s recent earnings was no surprise to us as we continued to highlight that the company’s business model is far inferior to its counterpart freee. </li>
<li>The last 2-3 quarterly results have made that discrepancy clear and MF’s non-BO SaaS businesses are only dead weight and have helped conceal weaknesses of its business model.</li>
<li>MF’s share price is down 19.3% YTD and think the market has finally come to terms that MF is losing ground whereas freee has managed to turn around its profitability.</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) MF’s recent earnings was no surprise to us as we continued to highlight that the company’s business model is far inferior to its counterpart freee. 
The last 2-3 quarterly results have made that discrepancy clear and MF’s non-BO SaaS businesses are only dead weight and have helped conceal weaknesses of its business model.
MF’s share price is down 19.3% YTD and think the market has finally come to terms that MF is losing ground whereas freee has managed to turn around its profitability.


Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

A chartered management accountant with more than 10 years of rich experience in investment research and financial analysis. Worked as an equity analyst for one of the world's largest asset managers with USD2.5trn in AUM covering numerous sectors including chemicals, retail, tech, autos, telco, real-estate and banks, globally. Experienced in fundamental equity research, industry research, commodity studies, forensic accounting, and due diligence reviews.

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA
Equity Analyst
• LightStream Research

High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

freee reported strong results with profits. As we expected, seasonally higher S&M spending for tax filing led to drop in profits. Share price is up...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead

Recruit's 4Q earnings missed consensus. The job market in the US is cooling off and the company is expecting earnings to remain under pressure...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

freee reported strong results with profits. As we expected, seasonally higher S&M spending for tax filing led to drop in profits. Share price is up...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead

​Recruit's 4Q earnings missed consensus. The job market in the US is cooling off and the company is expecting earnings to remain under pressure...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

​Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

​Timee's share price has been volatile despite reporting strong earnings. As the market leader, Timee's earnings have further potential to expand....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

​Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Recruit's 4Q earnings missed consensus. The job market in the US is cooling off and the company is expecting earnings to remain under pressure...

Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Timee's share price has been volatile despite reporting strong earnings. As the market leader, Timee's earnings have further potential to expand....

Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...