Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Bean prices have rallied strong in Oct pushing past the 12-month trading range. Hope or Fundamentals?</li>
<li>China has not purchased any US beans for MY 2025/26. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May.</li>
<li>Puzzle is that prices climb despite worsening fundamentals. Are traders pricing in an eventual resolution? What if their hopes are misplaced?</li>
</ul>


Bean prices have rallied strong in Oct pushing past the 12-month trading range. Hope or Fundamentals?
China has not purchased any US beans for MY 2025/26. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May.
Puzzle is that prices climb despite worsening fundamentals. Are traders pricing in an eventual resolution? What if their hopes are misplaced?


Bean Rallies on Hope Underpinned by Fragile Fundamentals

Equity Bottom-Up

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc-04f6cda9-c726-4c33-8544-c5046bc74b29" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28603:1" rel="noopener"></a>Anglo American and Teck Resources merge in a $53 billion deal, creating the world’s fifth-largest copper producer with defensive scale.</li>
<li>The merger promises $800 million in annual cost synergies by the end of 4th year, but execution across multiple jurisdictions will remain a challenge.</li>
<li>Regulatory approval in Canada and key stakeholder positions, including Keevil and Elliott, will be pivotal to deal success.</li>
</ul>



Anglo American and Teck Resources merge in a $53 billion deal, creating the world’s fifth-largest copper producer with defensive scale.
The merger promises $800 million in annual cost synergies by the end of 4th year, but execution across multiple jurisdictions will remain a challenge.
Regulatory approval in Canada and key stakeholder positions, including Keevil and Elliott, will be pivotal to deal success.


Anglo-Teck Merger: Scaling Up to Fortify Copper Empire

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> shares are down 15.3% YTD and remains undervalued relative to peers. Asset optimisation, buybacks &amp; dividends to drive its share prices higher.</li>
<li>Firm has identified USD 1 billion in annual cost savings, with at least 50% expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.</li>
<li>The company has reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns via USD 1 billion buyback and USD 1 billion through dividend payout.</li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) shares are down 15.3% YTD and remains undervalued relative to peers. Asset optimisation, buybacks &amp; dividends to drive its share prices higher.
Firm has identified USD 1 billion in annual cost savings, with at least 50% expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.
The company has reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns via USD 1 billion buyback and USD 1 billion through dividend payout.


Down But Not Out! Multiple Tailwinds to Drive Glencore Higher (Long GLEN | TP: GBp 360)

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22871:1" rel="noopener">Silver (SILVER COMDTY)</a> going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.</li>
<li>Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.</li>
<li>Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.</li>
</ul>



Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.


Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.</li>
<li>June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.</li>
<li>On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.


Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower

Over twenty years of experience in capital markets covering equities, listed derivatives, physical commodities, OTC commodity derivatives, and digital assets. Straddling sell-side and buy-side with more than a decade of fluency in managing exchange listed products, OTC derivatives, and proficiency in building exchange platforms.

Our investment approach at Mint Finance blends deep fundamental research with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies developed by Mint Finance cuts across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every investment strategy to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across political and monetary economics.