Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

USHIO INC. manufactures lamps and optical equipment including projectors for movie theaters.  The Company produces halogen and Houdentou lamps for semiconductor and office automation equipment.  Ushio has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.

<ul>
<li>Last year with earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ushio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6640:1" rel="noopener">Ushio Inc (6925 JP)</a> announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huuuge-ushio-6925-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102028" rel="noopener">HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback</a>. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. </li>
<li>Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) <em>earnings</em> guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.</li>
<li>But today they announced a "<a href="https://www.ushio.co.jp/documents/ir/library/plan/ushio_plan2024_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new growth strategy</a>" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.</li>
</ul>


Last year with earnings, Ushio Inc (6925 JP) announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. 
Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.
But today they announced a "new growth strategy" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.


Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Equity Capital Markets

MODEC, INC. manufactures petroleum and natural gas production machinery.  The Company specializes in extraction machinery for marine use, including semi-submersible and fixed platform types, and also machinery as on-board equipment on ships.

<ul>
<li>In March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a> announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. </li>
<li>It <a href="https://www.modec.com/news/assets/pdf/20240315_ir_prime_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "Basic Plan" to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.</li>
<li>Mitsui E&amp;S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&amp;S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.</li>
</ul>


In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. 
It announced a "Basic Plan" to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
Mitsui E&amp;S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&amp;S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.


YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime - Effectively a Re-IPO

Toppan Printing Co., Ltd. is a printing company that provides commercial and publication printing services. The Company also prints securities paper, packaging products, and electronic related products such as photomasks and colorfilters. Toppan Printing also produces inks and operates a text book publication business.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> established a new <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7911/tdnet/2283187/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium-Term Management Plan</a> with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!</li>
<li>They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. </li>
<li>Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.</li>
</ul>



Toppan Printing (7911 JP) established a new Medium-Term Management Plan with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!
They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. 
Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.


Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

<ul>
<li>Pre-Open on February 1 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.</li>
<li>Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.</li>
<li>Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!</li>
</ul>


Pre-Open on February 1 2024, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.
Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.
Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!


Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

I'rom Group Co., Ltd. provides management services on clinical trials and staffing consulting services including providing nurses, pharmacists, and clinical pathologists to medical institutions as well as training medicalrelated staffs.  The Company also provides and leases facilities and finances for these who are to start their clinics.

<ul>
<li>Today SMO and CRO operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-rom-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2686:1" rel="noopener">I'Rom Group (2372 JP)</a> announced an MBO where Blackstone would be the sponsor.</li>
<li>From outward appearances, it would seem to be an estate management exercise. It's not particularly rich as a bid, but it isn't awful. </li>
<li>I expect this gets done as Mori-san and family and friends appear to have 58% going in. Expected to start in June.</li>
</ul>


Today SMO and CRO operator I'Rom Group (2372 JP) announced an MBO where Blackstone would be the sponsor.
From outward appearances, it would seem to be an estate management exercise. It's not particularly rich as a bid, but it isn't awful. 
I expect this gets done as Mori-san and family and friends appear to have 58% going in. Expected to start in June.


Blackstone to Take I'rom (2372 JP) Private in MBO at ¥2800/Share (49% Premium)

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Last May Ushio guided down earnings but announced a huge buyback. The stock popped on Day1 then went sideways. This year, they guided down earnings...

Travis Lundy

YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime - Effectively a Re-IPO

Modec raised capital last year, and tradable shares went below 35pct. That meant someone had to sell by end-2025. Mitsui E and S is selling most of...

Travis Lundy

Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Toppan had good earnings from securities sales. OP should rise this year. Good. They upped the buyback amount and pace, dramatically. Also good....

Travis Lundy

Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

Aozora wrote down more, sold more, and had worse results. Guidance to Mar25 is still weak. Now Aozora is issuing shares to Daiwa Securities Group...

Travis Lundy

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Last May Ushio guided down earnings but announced a huge buyback. The stock popped on Day1 then went sideways. This year, they guided down earnings...

Travis Lundy

YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime - Effectively a Re-IPO

Modec raised capital last year, and tradable shares went below 35pct. That meant someone had to sell by end-2025. Mitsui E and S is selling most of...

Travis Lundy

Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Toppan had good earnings from securities sales. OP should rise this year. Good. They upped the buyback amount and pace, dramatically. Also good....

Travis Lundy

Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

Aozora wrote down more, sold more, and had worse results. Guidance to Mar25 is still weak. Now Aozora is issuing shares to Daiwa Securities Group...

Travis Lundy

Blackstone to Take I'rom (2372 JP) Private in MBO at ¥2800/Share (49% Premium)

Blackstone is sponsoring the other part of an MBO where CEO Mori-san who controls 47% is taking out the reasonably fast-growing SMO/CRO business at...

Travis Lundy