Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.</li>
<li>The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think</li>
<li>Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. </li>
</ul>


Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.
The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think
Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. 


Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply</li><li>Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool</li><li>It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion</li></ul>

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen! Alas, it seems like there are quite a few bears out there who have been infected with recession vibes, thus the doctor has ordered some medicine for the patients which we’ll gladly provide to the likes of Jan Hatzius et. al..</li><li>Firstly, the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index is at its highest since early 2022 and far far away from anything that smells like recession. </li><li>Real GDP y/y should stay above 2% and the WEI is currently hinting at 3% real GDP growth.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen! Alas, it seems like there are quite a few bears out there who have been infected with recession vibes, thus the doctor has ordered some medicine for the patients which we’ll gladly provide to the likes of Jan Hatzius et. al..Firstly, the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index is at its highest since early 2022 and far far away from anything that smells like recession. Real GDP y/y should stay above 2% and the WEI is currently hinting at 3% real GDP growth.

Macro Watch: 5 Charts That’ll Cure Your Recession Blues!

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

<ul><li>Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variables</li><li>Inventories in the US are building</li><li>Shipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. </li></ul>

Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variablesInventories in the US are buildingShipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. 

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

Ulrik contributes to Steno Signals and the Watch Series on all things related to markets. He is enrolled at the Copenhagen Business School where he studies Applied Economics and Finance and has prior to that worked at the Danish Consulate General in Munich as well as the German Chamber of Commerce in Copenhagen.

Ulrik Simmelholt
Junior Finance Analyst
• Steno Research

Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets The RTY rotation story is not all rosy Momentum suggests that we are not as...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war...

Steno Research

Macro Watch: 5 Charts That’ll Cure Your Recession Blues!

bank earnings are exceeding expectations widely, and traditionally, bank earnings are a precursor to credit cycle trends as evidenced by the...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

This week, we will take a look at copper, which has rebounded in July, and also discuss freight rates, where calmer weather at the Cape of Good...

Steno Research