Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Wheat prices are experiencing a significant resurgence due to extreme weather events and global supply-demand imbalances. Price is 22% higher over the past month. </li>
<li>May WASDE report indicates a positive outlook for global wheat production despite recent weather challenges, suggesting potential underestimations in global supply disruptions. </li>
<li>The anticipated shift to La Niña, coupled with historically low stocks-to-use ratios, threatens global wheat supply, heightening the potential for increased market volatility and price spikes.</li>
</ul>


Wheat prices are experiencing a significant resurgence due to extreme weather events and global supply-demand imbalances. Price is 22% higher over the past month. 
May WASDE report indicates a positive outlook for global wheat production despite recent weather challenges, suggesting potential underestimations in global supply disruptions. 
The anticipated shift to La Niña, coupled with historically low stocks-to-use ratios, threatens global wheat supply, heightening the potential for increased market volatility and price spikes.


Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds Investors are increasingly flocking to commodity funds again.</li><li>A net €353 million flowed into funds from the Morningstar Broad Basket Commodities category in Europe in April.</li><li>This was by far the best month for the category in over two years.</li></ul>

Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds Investors are increasingly flocking to commodity funds again.A net €353 million flowed into funds from the Morningstar Broad Basket Commodities category in Europe in April.This was by far the best month for the category in over two years.

Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds & New Cocoa Narrative

Suhas Reddy

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>US commercial crude oil inventory fell by 1.36 million barrels for the week ending on 3/May, after rising by 7.3 million barrels the week before.</li>
<li>EIA increased its global liquid fuels production for 2024 and 2025 by 110,000 bpd and 40,000 bpd, respectively.</li>
<li>EIA forecasts OPEC's spare production capacity around 4 million bpd through 2025.</li>
</ul>


US commercial crude oil inventory fell by 1.36 million barrels for the week ending on 3/May, after rising by 7.3 million barrels the week before.
EIA increased its global liquid fuels production for 2024 and 2025 by 110,000 bpd and 40,000 bpd, respectively.
EIA forecasts OPEC's spare production capacity around 4 million bpd through 2025.


Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

<ul><li>-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.</li><li>“It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.</li><li>Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.</li></ul>

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.“It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Iron ore continued to lounge around the 117 USD/ton levels, but there is increased optimism for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-and-the-china-property-auto-stimulus-angle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139280" rel="noopener">Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle</a> </li>
<li>Spreads between 65 and 62 widened to 13.8 USD/ton from 12.6 USD/ton last week, and we expect this spread to build further. </li>
<li>The street now widely anticipates the China TSF number between 9-15th of May, which is expected to grow in April at 14.5% YoY on consensus estimates to 1.4 trillion Yuan.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore continued to lounge around the 117 USD/ton levels, but there is increased optimism for Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle 
Spreads between 65 and 62 widened to 13.8 USD/ton from 12.6 USD/ton last week, and we expect this spread to build further. 
The street now widely anticipates the China TSF number between 9-15th of May, which is expected to grow in April at 14.5% YoY on consensus estimates to 1.4 trillion Yuan.


Iron Ore: 117 USD/Ton and Upwards to 130 Short-Term, Catalysts To Watch and Our Stock Screener

Analysis of underlying commodity demand & supply

Commodities
Analysis of underlying commodity demand & supply

Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...

Mint Finance

Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds & New Cocoa Narrative

A net €353 million flowed into funds from the Morningstar Broad Basket Commodities category in Europe in April. This was by far the best month for...

The Commodity Report

Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...

Mint Finance

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the...

The Commodity Report

Iron Ore: 117 USD/Ton and Upwards to 130 Short-Term, Catalysts To Watch and Our Stock Screener

We summarize the catalysts that will take iron ore higher from 117 USD/ton to 130 USD/ton in the short term. We also provide readers with our iron...

Sameer Taneja

Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

​Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...

Mint Finance

Investors Flock Back Into Commodity Funds & New Cocoa Narrative

A net €353 million flowed into funds from the Morningstar Broad Basket Commodities category in Europe in April. This was by far the best month for...

The Commodity Report

Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

​US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...

Mint Finance

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the...

The Commodity Report

Iron Ore: 117 USD/Ton and Upwards to 130 Short-Term, Catalysts To Watch and Our Stock Screener

We summarize the catalysts that will take iron ore higher from 117 USD/ton to 130 USD/ton in the short term. We also provide readers with our iron...

Sameer Taneja

Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...

US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...