Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

NAC Kazatomprom JSC produces and markets minerals. The Company specializes in natural uranium production. NAC Kazatomprom also imports and exports uranium compounds, nuclear power plant fuel, and uranium components. NAC Kazatomprom serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>U.S. political moves last month backing nuclear power are part of a long-term secular trend of increasing global support for the industry which could drive a uranium rebound </li>
<li>A nearly 40% uranium slump from early 2024 to March 2025 has priced in a significant degree of the industry’s challenges, and a price recovery has started </li>
<li>As the world’s largest producer, Kazatomprom is well positioned for a rise in uranium, it has lagged the recent sector rebound, and trades at a moderate 1.4x P/B ratio  </li>
</ul>


U.S. political moves last month backing nuclear power are part of a long-term secular trend of increasing global support for the industry which could drive a uranium rebound 
A nearly 40% uranium slump from early 2024 to March 2025 has priced in a significant degree of the industry’s challenges, and a price recovery has started 
As the world’s largest producer, Kazatomprom is well positioned for a rise in uranium, it has lagged the recent sector rebound, and trades at a moderate 1.4x P/B ratio  


Kazatomprom: Largest Global Producer Well Positioned for Uranium Rebound

<ul>
<li>Operations remain strong with volume rising and revenue up on the continued rise in uranium prices in Q3/25, although the metal has cooled in Q4/25 </li>
<li>Domestic macro remains a drag on the valuation, with the NBK hiking its base rate 1.5% in October 2025 to combat rising inflation, boosting our discount rate significantly   </li>
<li>After over a 40% rise since June 2025 our valuation is now about -20% below the current price, although the P/B still looks low, especially versus Cameco's surging multiple</li>
</ul>


Operations remain strong with volume rising and revenue up on the continued rise in uranium prices in Q3/25, although the metal has cooled in Q4/25 
Domestic macro remains a drag on the valuation, with the NBK hiking its base rate 1.5% in October 2025 to combat rising inflation, boosting our discount rate significantly   
After over a 40% rise since June 2025 our valuation is now about -20% below the current price, although the P/B still looks low, especially versus Cameco's surging multiple


Kazatomprom: Major Rate Hike Hits Valuation of Uranium Market Leader

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan / Equity Bottom-Up

Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC provides various commercial and retail banking services. The Bank offers foreign currency exchange services, securities brokerage, and custodial services.

Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan (HSBK LI)

<p>Halyk Bank reported a 13.8% y-o-y increase in net interest income in Q325 with a sustained high net interest margin (NIM) of 7.1% versus 7.3% in Q324 and robust loan book growth of 19.7% y-o-y (8.2% ytd). Combined with good cost discipline (the cost-to-income ratio (CIR) was 16.3% in Q325 vs 16.1% in Q324), this allowed the company to maintain an ROE above 30% (34.3% in Q325 on an annualised basis). Halyk preserved a strong capital base with a CET-1, Tier-1 and total capital ratio of 17.4% at end-September 2025 (with an indicative FY26e target of 17–19%) and local capital ratios of 18.3% versus the regulatory requirement for total capital (k2) of 12.0%. We believe this provides the bank with a solid balance sheet to continue delivering attractive dividends (its payout from FY24 earnings of KZT50.64 per share represents a c 16% yield based on the current share price). We note that Halyk’s majority shareholder (ALMEX Holding Group) recently sold a 7.6% stake at a price per common share and global depository receipt (GDR) of KZT298.66 and $23.0, respectively, to improve the liquidity of Halyk’s shares and broaden the shareholder register. It retained a majority stake and declared full commitment to the bank’s long-term success.</p>

Halyk Bank reported a 13.8% y-o-y increase in net interest income in Q325 with a sustained high net interest margin (NIM) of 7.1% versus 7.3% in Q324 and robust loan book growth of 19.7% y-o-y (8.2% ytd). Combined with good cost discipline (the cost-to-income ratio (CIR) was 16.3% in Q325 vs 16.1% in Q324), this allowed the company to maintain an ROE above 30% (34.3% in Q325 on an annualised basis). Halyk preserved a strong capital base with a CET-1, Tier-1 and total capital ratio of 17.4% at end-September 2025 (with an indicative FY26e target of 17–19%) and local capital ratios of 18.3% versus the regulatory requirement for total capital (k2) of 12.0%. We believe this provides the bank with a solid balance sheet to continue delivering attractive dividends (its payout from FY24 earnings of KZT50.64 per share represents a c 16% yield based on the current share price). We note that Halyk’s majority shareholder (ALMEX Holding Group) recently sold a 7.6% stake at a price per common share and global depository receipt (GDR) of KZT298.66 and $23.0, respectively, to improve the liquidity of Halyk’s shares and broaden the shareholder register. It retained a majority stake and declared full commitment to the bank’s long-term success.

Halyk Bank — 7% NIM likely to be sustained into 2026

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode</li>
<li>WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms</li>
<li>Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up</li>
</ul>


By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode
WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms
Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up
