AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.25%, aligning with consensus expectations and reinforcing a supportive stance for sustained wage-price cycles.</li><li>Inflation is projected to stabilise around the 2% target by fiscal 2025, although risks from global economic and commodity prices could skew inflationary pressures upward.</li><li>Any rate increases remain conditional on external developments, particularly concerning the US economy’s impact on Japan’s inflation and currency dynamics.</li></ul><div>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</div>

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.25%, aligning with consensus expectations and reinforcing a supportive stance for sustained wage-price cycles.Inflation is projected to stabilise around the 2% target by fiscal 2025, although risks from global economic and commodity prices could skew inflationary pressures upward.Any rate increases remain conditional on external developments, particularly concerning the US economy’s impact on Japan’s inflation and currency dynamics.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.25% (Consensus 0.25%) in Oct-24

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul><li>September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and unemployment news.</li><li>Co-movement in inflation and activity surprises reinforces the hawkish signal’s strength, especially as the news was broad-based across countries and core measures.</li><li>The case for a 50bp cut in December has evaporated before forming in the data. A 25bp cut remains likely before resilience urges a more gradual and limited easing cycle.</li></ul>

September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and unemployment news.Co-movement in inflation and activity surprises reinforces the hawkish signal’s strength, especially as the news was broad-based across countries and core measures.The case for a 50bp cut in December has evaporated before forming in the data. A 25bp cut remains likely before resilience urges a more gradual and limited easing cycle.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The investor distribution for September shows that the Foreign bought DKK 4.9bn callable. Is that and early bird?</li><li>I must admit that I find the investor distribution data a bit more uninteresting than some years ago.</li><li>At some point in the future the data will become more relevant again which is why we must keep looking at them every month to detect if there are signs of the trend changing. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The investor distribution for September shows that the Foreign bought DKK 4.9bn callable. Is that and early bird?I must admit that I find the investor distribution data a bit more uninteresting than some years ago.At some point in the future the data will become more relevant again which is why we must keep looking at them every month to detect if there are signs of the trend changing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investor Distribution for September: Do I Spot a Signal?

<ul><li>The Ministry of Finance/Norges Bank working group ongovernment transactions and the money market, released in early April made it clear that big changes were coming for the Norwegian Money market.</li><li>Following the group’s recommendations, it looked like privatebank reserves at the central bank (structural liquidity) was set to rise from around 35bn to 200bnover the next couple of years with large implications for Nibor-OIS, repos and fx swaps.</li><li>Read our assessment at the timehereNorges Bank confirmed our expectations of increased reserves at theirMarket Seminar in mid-April, while also saying that they would decide how to respond depending on whether the proposed changes would be implemented or not.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Ministry of Finance/Norges Bank working group ongovernment transactions and the money market, released in early April made it clear that big changes were coming for the Norwegian Money market.Following the group’s recommendations, it looked like privatebank reserves at the central bank (structural liquidity) was set to rise from around 35bn to 200bnover the next couple of years with large implications for Nibor-OIS, repos and fx swaps.Read our assessment at the timehereNorges Bank confirmed our expectations of increased reserves at theirMarket Seminar in mid-April, while also saying that they would decide how to respond depending on whether the proposed changes would be implemented or not.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A New Framework for Norges Bank's Market Operations

<ul><li>TheQ3 GDP flashstood at -0.1% q/q and -0.1% y/y.</li><li>GDP has declined two consecutive quarters and GDP is on the same levels as in Q4 2021, i.e. almost three years of stagnation.</li><li>The outcome was weaker than expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TheQ3 GDP flashstood at -0.1% q/q and -0.1% y/y.GDP has declined two consecutive quarters and GDP is on the same levels as in Q4 2021, i.e. almost three years of stagnation.The outcome was weaker than expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.