External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at 2025 PE of 13.2x which is at a discount to its historical average of 22.32x.</li><li>Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at 2025 PE of 16.1x vs. 10-year average of 26.95x, pharmaceutical is trading at 2025 PE of 18.0x vs. 10-year average PE of 20.74x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of 8.2x vs. 10-year average PE of 19.27x.</li><li>Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 18%/25% and 13%/14% respectively.</li></ul>

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at 2025 PE of 13.2x which is at a discount to its historical average of 22.32x.Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at 2025 PE of 16.1x vs. 10-year average of 26.95x, pharmaceutical is trading at 2025 PE of 18.0x vs. 10-year average PE of 20.74x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of 8.2x vs. 10-year average PE of 19.27x.Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 18%/25% and 13%/14% respectively.

<ul><li>Pakistan Urea sales in Nov 2025 is anticipated to clock in at 817k tons, up by 133% MoM and 25% YoY driven by improved agriculture activity coupled with discounts offered by select manufacturers.</li><li>The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 1.05mn tons in Nov 2025, down from 1.42mn tons in Oct 2025.</li><li>Going forward, we expect urea sales to remain robust in Dec 2025 as well amidst seasonality.</li></ul>

Pakistan Urea sales in Nov 2025 is anticipated to clock in at 817k tons, up by 133% MoM and 25% YoY driven by improved agriculture activity coupled with discounts offered by select manufacturers.The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 1.05mn tons in Nov 2025, down from 1.42mn tons in Oct 2025.Going forward, we expect urea sales to remain robust in Dec 2025 as well amidst seasonality.

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea Sales For Nov 2025 Surged 133% MoM And 25% YoY; Inventory At 1.05mn Tons

<ul><li>Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.4mn tons in Nov 2025, down 10% YoY and 5% MoM.</li><li>The YoY decline is due to a high base in Nov 2024, when OMC sales hit a 25-month peak driven by a 30-month high sales of HSD. This surge last year followed price stability, an improving economy, and tighter control on smuggling, with PSO leading HSD sales.</li><li>This takes total sales for 5MFY26 to 6.81mn tons, reflecting a 1% YoY increase compared to 6.75mn tons in 5MFY25.</li></ul>

Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.4mn tons in Nov 2025, down 10% YoY and 5% MoM.The YoY decline is due to a high base in Nov 2024, when OMC sales hit a 25-month peak driven by a 30-month high sales of HSD. This surge last year followed price stability, an improving economy, and tighter control on smuggling, with PSO leading HSD sales.This takes total sales for 5MFY26 to 6.81mn tons, reflecting a 1% YoY increase compared to 6.75mn tons in 5MFY25.

Pakistan Oil Marketing - OMC Sales Down 10% YoY and 5% MoM in Nov 2025; 5MFY26 Sales Up 1% YoY

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.</li>
<li>The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.</li>
<li>Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.</li>
</ul>


From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.


Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

<ul>
<li>In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). </li>
<li>Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.</li>
<li>Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.</li>
</ul>


In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). 
Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.
Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.


Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.