IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.</li>
<li>Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit. </li>
<li>The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit. 
The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake. 


Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a "<a href="https://files.microcms-assets.io/assets/9cc6c4957a514b11b1d7cdc6bd2fec67/a6dd20c2f33441b4b5e595bb5e9f6293/20251201_vision_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vision</a>" instead. </li>
<li>Today post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (<a href="https://www.aeon.info/wp-content/uploads/news/pdf/2025/12/251202R_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before. </li>
<li>AEON obviously <em>really</em> did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a "Vision" instead. 
Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before. 
AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower. 


[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Gabia Inc. provides Internet domain registration services.  The Company offers customer support and services such as Web hosting, domain registration and management, and Web agency.  Gabia also provides solution for Internet shopping mall and e-learning business.

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS). </li>
<li>Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won. </li>
<li>If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%. </li>
</ul>


After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS). 
Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won. 
If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%. 


A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

<ul>
<li>The merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. </li>
<li>After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> will have to pay up. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.</li>
</ul>


The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.


[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

Insights on Partial Offer/Partial Tender Offers

Partial Offer / Partial Tender Offer
Insights on Partial Offer/Partial Tender Offers

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

A good result for minorities, as the offer has been bumped from JPY2,280 to JPY2,900. The offer is modestly below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in...

Arun George

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS). Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than...

Douglas Kim

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

A good result for minorities, as the offer has been bumped from JPY2,280 to JPY2,900. The offer is modestly below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in...

Arun George

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share

AEON announced the TSURUHA Tender Offer at a revised price of ¥2,900. They really did not want to bump but that was childish. Smaller Tender but 6%...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS). Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than...

Douglas Kim

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy