Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.</li><li>UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.</li><li>Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.</li></ul>

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente, S.A., through subsidiaries, offers insurance.  The Company offers life, accident, health, automobile, marine, freight, and fire insurance.

<ul>
<li>Inocsa secures ~98% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-catalana-occidente-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21272:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM)</a> after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.</li>
<li>With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.</li>
<li>GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa secures ~98% of Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM) after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.
With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.
GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.


Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Tecnicas Reunidas SA offers engineering and construction services.  The Company primarily designs and constructs a variety of industrial plants as well as power.

<ul>
 <li>Tecnicas Reunidas is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global energy transition, with a growing focus on low-carbon technologies, LNG, and decarbonization projects, which are expected to be significant long-term growth drivers.</li>
 <li>The company has demonstrated a strong operational turnaround, evidenced by a record backlog of €11.5 billion as of September 2025 and a significant increase in revenue and profitability, signaling a robust recovery and strong earnings visibility.</li>
 <li>While the company's pivot to higher-growth areas is promising, it faces inherent risks tied to the cyclicality of the energy sector, intense competition, and the challenges of executing large-scale, complex projects with potential for cost overruns and delays.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Tecnicas Reunidas is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global energy transition, with a growing focus on low-carbon technologies, LNG, and decarbonization projects, which are expected to be significant long-term growth drivers.
  The company has demonstrated a strong operational turnaround, evidenced by a record backlog of €11.5 billion as of September 2025 and a significant increase in revenue and profitability, signaling a robust recovery and strong earnings visibility.
  While the company's pivot to higher-growth areas is promising, it faces inherent risks tied to the cyclicality of the energy sector, intense competition, and the challenges of executing large-scale, complex projects with potential for cost overruns and delays.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Tecnicas Reunidas Sa (TRE SM) - Dec 2025

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.