Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>This is an update to our previous insight published on April 22nd: "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-kospi-200-weekly-bounce-rally-or-not" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?</a>".</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX </a> has performed a nearly +6% rally in the last 3 weeks, closing up 3 weeks in a row (CC=+3).</li>
<li>We have something to say about this pattern that was identified 3 weeks and ago and so we wanted to post this insight to explicit our view.</li>
</ul>


This is an update to our previous insight published on April 22nd: "EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?".
The KOSPI 200 INDEX  has performed a nearly +6% rally in the last 3 weeks, closing up 3 weeks in a row (CC=+3).
We have something to say about this pattern that was identified 3 weeks and ago and so we wanted to post this insight to explicit our view.


The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.</li>
<li>The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. </li>
<li>If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.
The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. 
If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.


EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-s-downtrend-could-continue-in-may-but-the-bottom-is-near" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous forecast</a> will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).</li>
<li>The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.</li>
<li>A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. </li>
</ul>


If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. 


EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.</li>
<li>Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.</li>
<li>The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.


EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> has closed down for 3 consecutive weeks (CC=-3), it is WEEKLY oversold.</li>
<li>If the index rallies this week, it could reach &gt;362 (Q2 resistance) and that could be enough to end the bounce.</li>
<li>Our hypothesis is that the index will pull back again, after the bounce, next week (if this week ends with a positive WEEKLY close).</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX has closed down for 3 consecutive weeks (CC=-3), it is WEEKLY oversold.
If the index rallies this week, it could reach &gt;362 (Q2 resistance) and that could be enough to end the bounce.
Our hypothesis is that the index will pull back again, after the bounce, next week (if this week ends with a positive WEEKLY close).


EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?

MRM Research
Quantitative Research

EQD | KOSPI 200 Ready to Pullback

The KOSPI 200 Index has performed a nearly +6% rally in 3 weeks, but overall the uptrend looks weak. Our models say the index should correct this...

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EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

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EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

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EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

The Nikkei is closing the month of April down, and the month of May is a coin flip, but strong LONG support is found between 37770 and 36750. The...

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EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?

The KOSPI 200 INDEX is oversold WEEKLY and may rally to >362, but not much further up than that: ending the bounce this week, it could pull back...

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EQD | KOSPI 200 Ready to Pullback

The KOSPI 200 Index has performed a nearly +6% rally in 3 weeks, but overall the uptrend looks weak. Our models say the index should correct this...

Nico Rosti

EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

The Nikkei is closing the month of April down, and the month of May is a coin flip, but strong LONG support is found between 37770 and 36750. The...

Nico Rosti

EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?

​The KOSPI 200 INDEX is oversold WEEKLY and may rally to >362, but not much further up than that: ending the bounce this week, it could pull back...

Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 INDEX is oversold WEEKLY and may rally to >362, but not much further up than that: ending the bounce this week, it could pull back...