Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 8 May, it was mentioned in numerous local media that Naver is under pressure from the Japanese government to sell its stake in LINE.</li>
<li>One of the reasons behind Japanese government's efforts to force Naver to sell its stake in LINE is due a major data breach incident in November 2023.</li>
<li>Based on our current understanding of this situation, the most likely scenario is for Naver to sell about 20-30% stake in A Holdings (the controlling shareholder of LINE) to SoftBank.</li>
</ul>


On 8 May, it was mentioned in numerous local media that Naver is under pressure from the Japanese government to sell its stake in LINE.
One of the reasons behind Japanese government's efforts to force Naver to sell its stake in LINE is due a major data breach incident in November 2023.
Based on our current understanding of this situation, the most likely scenario is for Naver to sell about 20-30% stake in A Holdings (the controlling shareholder of LINE) to SoftBank.


Naver: Under Pressure from the Japanese Government To Sell Its Stake in LINE

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will be capped to 10% of the index weight while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> is also close to the 10% cap.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be capped to 10% of the index weight while Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is also close to the 10% cap.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Last May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> announced buybacks of ¥200bn over 2 years. In August, they changed it to say  ¥200bn in the next nine months.</li>
<li>That helped support the stock through early March. It was big, and a decent percentage of ADV. Today, they announced earnings and guidance and another ¥100bn buyback through April 2025.</li>
<li>Earnings were OK. Guidance is a little low vs the Street. The stock popped 5% from where it was trading. Lower impact vs 2023. More cross-holder overhang consideration. </li>
</ul>


Last May, Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) announced buybacks of ¥200bn over 2 years. In August, they changed it to say  ¥200bn in the next nine months.
That helped support the stock through early March. It was big, and a decent percentage of ADV. Today, they announced earnings and guidance and another ¥100bn buyback through April 2025.
Earnings were OK. Guidance is a little low vs the Street. The stock popped 5% from where it was trading. Lower impact vs 2023. More cross-holder overhang consideration. 


Nippon Yusen (9101) - Another Big Buyback Announced, But Details Matter

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back in December last year, Aussie-listed equities manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) </a><a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750947-2A1492987?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)</a>'s $3bn all-scrip non-binding indicative proposal. </li>
<li>Yet Soul Patt's proposal was in sync with Perpetual's previously flagged intentions to explore a potential separation of its corporate trust and wealth management businesses, from its asset management business.</li>
<li>Perpetual has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240508/pdf/063ccykhk7w69h.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered a Scheme</a>, to carve out the corporate trust and wealth management businesses to KKR for A$2.175bn. A lack of clarity on net proceeds saw shares rollover.</li>
</ul>


Back in December last year, Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)'s $3bn all-scrip non-binding indicative proposal. 
Yet Soul Patt's proposal was in sync with Perpetual's previously flagged intentions to explore a potential separation of its corporate trust and wealth management businesses, from its asset management business.
Perpetual has now entered a Scheme, to carve out the corporate trust and wealth management businesses to KKR for A$2.175bn. A lack of clarity on net proceeds saw shares rollover.


Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. </li>
<li>The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. 
The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

Naver: Under Pressure from the Japanese Government To Sell Its Stake in LINE

On 8 May, it was mentioned in numerous local media that Naver is under pressure from the Japanese government to sell its stake in LINE.

Douglas Kim

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped while Tokyo...

Brian Freitas

Nippon Yusen (9101) - Another Big Buyback Announced, But Details Matter

Nippon Yusen today announced erns, guidance, a div hike, and an added buyback to last year's new MTMP. The stock reacted well. The buyback is...

Travis Lundy

Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out

The sum of the parts should be greater than the whole. It's not unreasonable to expect Perpetual to re-rate as debt-free, pure play asset manager?...

David Blennerhassett

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George