Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Holding companies have been the best performing asset class in the Korean stock market in the past month.</li>
<li>In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest "pure" holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin KAL, and HD Hyundai.</li>
<li>The NAVs of these five holdcos are about 18% higher than their current prices on average. </li>
</ul>


Holding companies have been the best performing asset class in the Korean stock market in the past month.
In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest "pure" holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin KAL, and HD Hyundai.
The NAVs of these five holdcos are about 18% higher than their current prices on average. 


NAV Valuations of Top Five Largest "Pure" Holdcos in Korea

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Top 3 stays unchanged — HD KSOE beats HHI on consolidated sales, and index rules push HHI to the Plus side since a group sibling’s already in the Top 3.</li>
<li>Plus Universe also looks stable, but HD Hyundai Mipo’s weight drops from 14.12% to 10% Friday — triggering ~₩40B in passive outflows, a key flow trade setup.</li>
<li>₩40B sell vs. ₩60–90B daily turnover, all hitting via one ETF desk (Shinhan SOL) Friday afternoon — flow size could move the tape. Should keep it on our radar.</li>
</ul>


Top 3 stays unchanged — HD KSOE beats HHI on consolidated sales, and index rules push HHI to the Plus side since a group sibling’s already in the Top 3.
Plus Universe also looks stable, but HD Hyundai Mipo’s weight drops from 14.12% to 10% Friday — triggering ~₩40B in passive outflows, a key flow trade setup.
₩40B sell vs. ₩60–90B daily turnover, all hitting via one ETF desk (Shinhan SOL) Friday afternoon — flow size could move the tape. Should keep it on our radar.


Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>. That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. </li>
<li>Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.</li>
<li>There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.</li>
</ul>


Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.


Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD461.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,277mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD461.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,277mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Biologics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD465.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,455mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD465.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,455mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 4th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics

South Korea

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides industrial plant engineering, special and naval shipbuilding, marine engine and machinery, industrial machinery and energy services. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering markets its products worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

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HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

NAV Valuations of Top Five Largest "Pure" Holdcos in Korea

In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest "pure" holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin...

Douglas Kim

Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

This post breaks down Friday’s cap reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF — a setup that presents a clear flow trade opportunity.

Sanghyun Park

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

KDB is looking to sell 13m shares to raise up to US$740m. They will still own 15.25% and that is an overhang. The stock is overvalued compared to...

Brian Freitas

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 4th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)