Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Independent Fund Manager, Swaen Capital

Swaen Capital

Independent Fund Manager

Swaen Capital is a Singapore based licensed independent fund manager with an open architecture, a non bias financial platform creating access to the best custodians and investment managers. Our focus lies within the wealth management business, covering client relationships, financial planning, advisory, as well as discretionary portfolio management. We have developed strategic alliances with other leading independent firms to complement and extend our offerings to clients (global hedge fund research capability, alternative investment offerings, corporate finance, fund structuring & administration, etc). Our know-how, extensive global network and long standing presence in Asia allows us to provide a global footprint and at the same time enables us to capitalize on regional opportunities.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).</li>
<li>Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.</li>
<li>Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.</li>
</ul>


The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).
Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.
Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.


Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. </li>
<li>SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. 
SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday


Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

<ul><li><p>This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.</p></li><li>First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).</li><li>This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.</li></ul>

This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

United States

Semtech Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, including integrated circuits, discrete circuits, and assembly products. The Company's devices are used in computer, communications, industrial, military-aerospace, and automotive applications.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC US)

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

Downgrading Communications $XLC to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long $SMH $CHAT $WGMI $BITQ $HYDR $NASA $REMX $ARKK $ARKW. Still Bullish since April 21

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Here's everything that happened this quarter, and some thoughts and ideas. This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas...

Fabricated Knowledge

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