Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 4 November, the Chinese government suddenly announced it will waive visa requirements for South Korean citizens entering China. </li>
<li>This is likely to have a major positive impact on major travel/airline stocks including Hana Tour Service, Korean Air Lines,  Very Good Leisure, Yellow Balloon Tour, and Modetour Network.</li>
<li>A no-visa policy by China for South Korean citizens could also imply a reciprocal policy by the South Korean government. </li>
</ul>


On 4 November, the Chinese government suddenly announced it will waive visa requirements for South Korean citizens entering China. 
This is likely to have a major positive impact on major travel/airline stocks including Hana Tour Service, Korean Air Lines,  Very Good Leisure, Yellow Balloon Tour, and Modetour Network.
A no-visa policy by China for South Korean citizens could also imply a reciprocal policy by the South Korean government. 


Chinese Government Announces a No-Visa Policy for South Korean Citizens Entering China

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules</li>
<li>The new rules could make 'de minimis' imports slightly more difficult</li>
<li>Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN</li>
</ul>


Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules
The new rules could make 'de minimis' imports slightly more difficult
Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN


SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. </li>
<li>Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. </li>
<li>Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. </li>
</ul>


In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. 
Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. 
Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. 


China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.</li>
<li>Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.</li>
<li>Most M&amp;A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.</li>
</ul>


Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.
Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.
Most M&amp;A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.


Korean Air - Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

South Korea

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. operates air transportation services.  The Company's services include passenger and cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, and air catering.  Korean Air Lines provides domestic and international airline services.

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Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)

Chinese Government Announces a No-Visa Policy for South Korean Citizens Entering China

The Chinese government suddenly announced it will waive visa requirements for South Korean citizens entering China. This is likely to have a major...

Douglas Kim

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

US Customs and Border Protection has tightened the rules under which SHEIN and Temu import cheap goods into the US. As a result, six US customs...

Tracking Traffic

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mohshin Aziz

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Korean Air - Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

Deep dive on prospects for Korean Air should it fail to achieve approval for planned Asiana merger. Global airline M&A perspective/organic...

Neil Glynn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Chinese Government Announces a No-Visa Policy for South Korean Citizens Entering China

The Chinese government suddenly announced it will waive visa requirements for South Korean citizens entering China. This is likely to have a major...

Douglas Kim

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

US Customs and Border Protection has tightened the rules under which SHEIN and Temu import cheap goods into the US. As a result, six US customs...

Tracking Traffic

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

​Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mohshin Aziz

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Korean Air - Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

Deep dive on prospects for Korean Air should it fail to achieve approval for planned Asiana merger. Global airline M&A perspective/organic...

Neil Glynn

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...