Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings were… acceptable.</li>
<li>
The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.
</li>
<li>
Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.

</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings were… acceptable.

The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.


Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.




Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY</li>
<li>China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion</li>
<li>A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY
China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion
A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output


Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)</li>
<li>ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)</li>
<li>LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)
ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)
LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

<ul><li>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</li><li>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

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Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY. China's annual WFE spending has roughly...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

​US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...