Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.</li>
<li>Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY</li>
<li>Interesting Q&amp;A discussion on backlog. KLAC's order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch...</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
Interesting Q&amp;A discussion on backlog. KLAC's order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch...


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.</li>
<li>
<p>TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.</p>
</li>
</ul>


TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.

TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.


Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.



TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.</li>
<li>ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023</li>
<li>ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.
ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023
ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?


ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

KLAC. Looks a Lot Like LRCX!

Q423 $2.49 billion, +3.6% QoQ, -15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ. Q124 guidance of $2.3 billion, -8% QoQ -5% YoY,...

William Keating

TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Its the first week of earnings, and it's already a busy one. TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on...

Fabricated Knowledge

ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, + 7.5% QoQ. Q124 guided at €5.25 billion, - 27% QoQ. Reiterated '24 guidance flat YoY. Share surge >8% overnight....

William Keating

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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