Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul><li>It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.</li><li>TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.</li><li>First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.</li></ul>

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook</li>
<li>Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.</li>
<li>SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook
Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!


TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

TSMC beat & raised guidance, maintained FY outlook. Minor, unnecessary tinkering with semi and foundry forecasts plus confusion about the root...

William Keating

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

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